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Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Lucid Group designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles—the Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity SUV—assembled at AMP-1 in Casa Grande, Arizona, with SKD/CBU operations at AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia. It sells directly through 45 Studios in North America, 12 in Europe, and... Read more

$5.72+27.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#6 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-135.73%
Stop $5.45Target $7.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$8.40+46.9%10 analysts
$7.31our TP
$5.72price
$8.40mean
$17

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Lucid Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Government of Saudi Arabia
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-1.2
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-2.2
Profit Mgn-239.8%
ROE-97.6%
Rev Growth20.2%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV96%elevated
Max Pain$14+136.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGovernment of Saudi Arabia
    10-K Item 1A: 'If we are unable to fulfill the orders from the Government of Saudi Arabia or if the Government of Saudi Arabia purchases significantly fewer vehicles than we anticipate... our business... could be materially and adversely affected'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on our suppliers, the majority of which are single-source suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Lucid announced Silvio Napoli as next CEO, starting April 15, 2026 as Executive Director. Napoli will be formally appointed CEO once he receives U.S. work authorization. Marc Winterhoff continues as Interim CEO until then, then resumes COO role.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-24Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Lucid announced reduction of U.S. workforce by approximately 12%, excluding hourly production workers in manufacturing, logistics, and quality, effective February 20, 2026. Cost savings to optimize expenses ahead of Midsize platform production.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
4.2
Cash-burning: FCF -217% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
5.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5INSIDER 24.60%=EXTREMEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.62Resistance $7.69

Price Targets

$5
$7
A.Upside+27.8%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Insider activity: 24.60%=extreme

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LCID stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.72: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 36%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $5.45. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LCID stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.31 (+27.6% upside). Prior stop was $5.45. Stop-loss: $5.45.

What are the risks of investing in LCID?

Concentration risk — Customer: Government of Saudi Arabia; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is LCID overvalued or undervalued?

Lucid Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -1.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LCID?

19 analysts cover LCID with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Lucid Group, Inc. do?Lucid Group designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles—the Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity...

Lucid Group designs, manufactures, and sells battery electric vehicles—the Lucid Air sedan and Lucid Gravity SUV—assembled at AMP-1 in Casa Grande, Arizona, with SKD/CBU operations at AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia. It sells directly through 45 Studios in North America, 12 in Europe, and 5 in the Middle East, with a Midsize platform planned for late 2026 production.

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