Redwire Corporation (RDW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.62; Below-average business quality.
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar arrays, docking systems, microgravity payloads for NASA/ESA/commercial) and Defense Tech (Stalker/Penguin UAS platforms, Octopus gimbal payloads for military ISR).... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.62; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Redwire Corporation
About Redwire Corporation
Redwire's contracted backlog of $411.2 million at December 31, 2025 — $299.8 million in the Space segment and $111.4 million in the Defense Tech segment — provided near-term revenue visibility for an integrated space and defense technology company operating out of 28 locations in North America and Europe. In fiscal 2025, national security customers contributed 46.9% of revenue, commercial customers 31.5%, and civil customers 21.6%, while 41.6% of revenue came from customers outside the United States.
Redwire earns revenue through fixed-price, cost-plus, and time-and-material contracts across two segments. The Space segment delivers next-generation spacecraft platforms (SabreSat, Phantom, Hammerhead, Thresher, and Mako), patented Roll-Out Solar Array power generation systems, 11 active microgravity payload facilities on the International Space Station, and digital engineering software. The Defense Tech segment — built around the 2025 acquisition of Edge Autonomy — offers the Stalker UAS (granted an Authority to Operate by the Defense Innovation Unit in July 2025 and added to its Blue UAS List), the Penguin C series, and the Octopus line of optical gimbal ISR payloads deployed in approximately 80 countries. The company competes against AeroVironment, Insitu (a Boeing company), Shield AI, and Anduril Industries for UAS contracts, and against Airbus, Sodern, and Rocket Lab USA for space components. Research and development expenses totaled $19.8 million in fiscal 2025.
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Redwire's dependence on U.S. government and allied nation contracts exposes the company to program termination and funding risk: the 10-K discloses that government contracts are often only partially funded and subject to immediate termination, and that national security customers accounted for 46.9% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Budget pressures driven by federal deficit dynamics or shifts in DoD spending priorities could reduce contract awards, and the filing also identifies material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting that, if unresolved, could affect the accuracy and timeliness of reported results. The company's exposure to tariff-related supply chain cost increases — particularly for components sourced from European manufacturing facilities — adds further uncertainty to cost forecasting.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Redwire Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Redwire Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Why Is Redwire Stock Falling On Tuesday? — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS Space Stocks Get Torched: Short Seller Calls Them 'Sci-Fi Wishes' — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 negative
- NEWS SpaceX Starts Trading At $150, Before Rising To $165: 'Liftoff', Says Elon Musk-Led Company — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Watching Space Stocks; Fugazi Research Issues Report Titled "Lost In Space: A Narrative Launched On Hype (ASTS, RDW, SPC — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 negative
- NEWS What's Going On With Redwire Stock Thursday? — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomernational security customers47%10-K Item 1: 'During our fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, we generated 46.9% of our revenue from national security customers, 21.6% of our revenue from civil customers, and 31.5% of our revenue from commercial customers.'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational customers42%10-K Item 1: 'For the same period, revenues from customers located outside of the United States accounted for 41.6%.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -80.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.62; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.05. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.11 (+72.8% upside). Prior stop was $14.05. Stop-loss: $14.05.
Target reached (-9.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).
Redwire Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -36.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover RDW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Redwire Corporation do?Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar...
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar arrays, docking systems, microgravity payloads for NASA/ESA/commercial) and Defense Tech (Stalker/Penguin UAS platforms, Octopus gimbal payloads for military ISR). It operates 28 locations in North America and Europe, with a contracted backlog of $411.2M as of December 31, 2025. In fiscal 2025, national security customers accounted for 46.9% of revenue, commercial 31.5%, and civil 21.6%, with 41.6% from international customers.