Redwire Corporation (RDW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.07: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments—Space (spacecraft platforms, large infrastructure, microgravity) and Defense Tech (UAS/autonomous systems via Edge Autonomy)—operating across 28 locations in North America and Europe. Revenue is... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.07: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'a limited number of customers make up a high percentage of our revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWFrank Calvelli appointed to Board effective March 12, 2026, as Class III director with term expiring at 2027 Annual Meeting. No committee assignments initially. No disagreement.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-26Item 1.02MEDIUMRedwire terminated the 2025 Credit Agreement (dated June 13, 2025) on February 20, 2026, upon entry into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase providing up to $30M revolving facility maturing May 31, 2029.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWRay Thomas Wallander resigned from Board effective immediately February 11, 2026; David Kornblatt indicated resignation effective March 3, 2026. Both departures not due to any disagreement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -67.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.07: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $8.40. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $12.28 (+35.9% upside). Prior stop was $8.40. Stop-loss: $8.40.
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).
Redwire Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover RDW with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Redwire Corporation do?Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments—Space (spacecraft platforms, large...
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments—Space (spacecraft platforms, large infrastructure, microgravity) and Defense Tech (UAS/autonomous systems via Edge Autonomy)—operating across 28 locations in North America and Europe. Revenue is primarily from U.S. government contracts; ~3% of 2025 sales were related to Ukraine.