Redwire Corporation (RDW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar arrays, docking systems, microgravity payloads for NASA/ESA/commercial) and Defense Tech (Stalker/Penguin UAS platforms, Octopus gimbal payloads for military ISR).... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Redwire Corporation
Latest news
- Voyager Awarded Subcontract By Redwire To Supply Acceleration Measurement System For DARPA Otter Program; Terms Not Disc — benzinga May 20, 2026 positive
- Redwire Won $15M Follow-On Order From U.S. Army's 1st Aviation Brigade At Aviation Center Of Excellence For Stalker Uncr — benzinga May 20, 2026 positive
- Redwire Lands Major NATO Ally Contract — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- Redwire Awarded Multi-Year Contract Valued At High Eight-Figures, Through Competitive Tender, By Undisclosed NATO Countr — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
- Why Redwire Stock Is Falling On Monday? — benzinga May 18, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomernational security customers47%10-K Item 1: 'During our fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, we generated 46.9% of our revenue from national security customers, 21.6% of our revenue from civil customers, and 31.5% of our revenue from commercial customers.'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational customers42%10-K Item 1: 'For the same period, revenues from customers located outside of the United States accounted for 41.6%.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -80.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.04: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.94. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $15.50 (+11.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.94. Stop-loss: $12.94.
Target reached (-10.4% upside); Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).
Redwire Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -33.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover RDW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Redwire Corporation do?Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar...
Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft platforms, solar arrays, docking systems, microgravity payloads for NASA/ESA/commercial) and Defense Tech (Stalker/Penguin UAS platforms, Octopus gimbal payloads for military ISR). It operates 28 locations in North America and Europe, with a contracted backlog of $411.2M as of December 31, 2025. In fiscal 2025, national security customers accounted for 46.9% of revenue, commercial 31.5%, and civil 21.6%, with 41.6% from international customers.