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Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.64: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.77; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Roblox operates an immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users in 2025 across 180+ countries; users spent 123.9B hours on the platform in 2025. Revenue is primarily from Robux (virtual currency) purchases; 29% flows through the Apple App Store and... Read more

$55.64+67.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#4 of 5 Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
Stop $51.92Target $93.23(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 6.0:1
Analyst target$101.34+82.1%35 analysts
$93.23our TP
$55.64price
$101.34mean
$167

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.64: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.77; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-42.6
Mkt Cap$40.3B
EV/EBITDA-38.4
Profit Mgn-21.8%
ROE-367.2%
Rev Growth43.2%
Beta1.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.77bearish
IV123%elevated
Max Pain$35-37.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerApple App Store29%
    10-K Item 1A: '29% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Apple App Store'
  • LOWCustomerGoogle Play Store15%
    10-K Item 1A: '15% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Google Play Store'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    Dennis Durkin (age 55, former Activision Blizzard CFO) elected to the Board effective March 19, 2026 as Class II director. Appointed to Audit and Compensation committees.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Arvind K. Chakravarthy (Chief People and Systems Officer) notified company of intent to resign effective March 6, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.8
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
3.8
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.3
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 6.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.62Resistance $64.42

Price Targets

$52
$93
A.Upside+67.6%
A.R:R6.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RBLX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.64: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 6.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.77; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $51.92. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RBLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.23 (+67.0% upside). Prior stop was $51.92. Stop-loss: $51.92.

What are the risks of investing in RBLX?

Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is RBLX overvalued or undervalued?

Roblox Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -42.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RBLX?

44 analysts cover RBLX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $101.

What does Roblox Corporation do?Roblox operates an immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users in 2025 across 180+...

Roblox operates an immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users in 2025 across 180+ countries; users spent 123.9B hours on the platform in 2025. Revenue is primarily from Robux (virtual currency) purchases; 29% flows through the Apple App Store and 15% through Google Play Store.

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