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Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.76: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Roblox is a global immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users (DAUq) and 123.9 billion hours of engagement in 2025 across 180+ countries. Revenue is earned primarily through sales of Robux (virtual currency) via the Apple App Store (29% of... Read more

$45.76+34.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 5 Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield3.58%
Stop $41.34Target $59.70(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$64.89+41.8%32 analysts
$59.70our TP
$45.76price
$64.89mean
$105

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.76: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.8Qual1.7Grw10.0Mom4.5Sent7.1Ins3.9Peer4.5Tech4.9Risk4.05.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — Roblox Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-38.8
Mkt Cap$33.6B
EV/EBITDA-32.8
Profit Mgn-20.7%
ROE-311.9%
Rev Growth39.3%
Beta1.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerApple App Store29%
    10-K Item 1A: '29% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Apple App Store and 15% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Google Play Store.'
  • LOWCustomerGoogle Play Store15%
    10-K Item 1A: '29% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Apple App Store and 15% of our revenue was attributable to Robux sales through the Google Play Store.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOW
    On March 19, 2026, the Board elected Dennis Durkin (age 55, former Activision Blizzard CFO) as a Class II director, appointed to the Audit Committee and Compensation Committee.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On February 24, 2026, Arvind K. Chakravarthy (Chief People and Systems Officer) notified the Company of his intent to resign effective March 6, 2026, to pursue other opportunities. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.8
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
3.6
Moat
4.2
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.15Resistance $63.00

Price Targets

$41
$60
A.Upside+30.5%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RBLX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.76: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $41.34. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RBLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.70 (+34.3% upside). Prior stop was $41.34. Stop-loss: $41.34.

What are the risks of investing in RBLX?

Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is RBLX overvalued or undervalued?

Roblox Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -38.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RBLX?

44 analysts cover RBLX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Roblox Corporation do?Roblox is a global immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users (DAUq) and 123.9 billion...

Roblox is a global immersive gaming and creation platform with 127M average daily active users (DAUq) and 123.9 billion hours of engagement in 2025 across 180+ countries. Revenue is earned primarily through sales of Robux (virtual currency) via the Apple App Store (29% of revenue) and Google Play Store (15%), plus in-experience purchases; creators receive payouts through the Developer Exchange Program. The platform hosts over 14M active experiences built by a community of millions of creators.

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