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QDELQuidelOrtho CorporationSell5.4·$13.59
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

QuidelOrtho is an attractively valued diagnostics company with a forward P/E of 6.0x and a strong recent earnings track record, but high short interest of 24%, declining revenue of -10%, and a market cap below the $1 billion investable threshold create significant headwinds that must be resolved before the value opportunity can be realized.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Investable Market Cap↑Improving
  • Deep Value Forward Pe↑Improving
  • Earnings Beat Streak Recovery↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

QuidelOrtho Corporation (QDEL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular Diagnostics, Point of Care, and Transfusion Medicine — serving customers in more than 140 countries through direct sales and distributors. Respiratory... Read more

$13.59-8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#41 of 62 Medical Devices
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield15.75%
Stop $12.64Analyst target $12.47(reached)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst consensus$14.67+7.9%3 analysts
$13.59price
$14.67mean
$12
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-28

Recent Developments — QuidelOrtho Corporation

Generated 2026-10-28T11:53:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single and sole source suppliers
Target reached (-8.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$932M
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn-39.2%
ROE-45.9%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta0.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV113%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWProductrespiratory products15%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our respiratory products accounted for approximately 15% of our total revenues for the year ended December 28, 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle and sole source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'our reliance on a small number of contract manufacturers and a large number of single and sole source suppliers'
  • MEDIUMCustomerkey distributors
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on certain key distributors for the sales of some of our products'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Micah Young as CFO effective July 6, 2026, succeeding Joseph M. Busky, who previously announced plans to retire (disclosed February 13, 2026). Busky continues in his role through the effective date under a transition and retirement agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
2.2
Bollinger
3.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -39.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Moat
3.9
Gross Margin
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.1
Current Ratio
5.2
Piotroski F
5.6
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 15.7%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
9.7
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
60 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.93Resistance $14.65

Price Targets

A.Upside-8.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-22.6% YoY), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QDEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.59: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $12.64. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QDEL stock price target?

Analyst target $12.47 reached (−8.3% from $13.59); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $12.64. Stop-loss: $12.64.

What are the risks of investing in QDEL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single and sole source suppliers; Target reached (-8.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is QDEL overvalued or undervalued?

QuidelOrtho Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QDEL?

8 analysts cover QDEL with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $15.

What does QuidelOrtho Corporation do?QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular...

QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular Diagnostics, Point of Care, and Transfusion Medicine — serving customers in more than 140 countries through direct sales and distributors. Respiratory diagnostics products, including the QuickVue and Sofia platforms, accounted for approximately 15% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, while the company winds down its U.S. donor-screening portfolio, expected substantially complete by the first half of 2026.

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