Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
QDEL · Why this verdict
Why QuidelOrtho (QDEL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QuidelOrtho is an attractively valued diagnostics company with a forward P/E of 6.0x and a strong recent earnings track record, but high short interest of 24%, declining revenue of -10%, and a market cap below the $1 billion investable threshold create significant headwinds that must be resolved before the value opportunity can be realized.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a market cap of approximately $0.99 billion, the company sits below the $1 billion minimum threshold considered investable, limiting institutional participation and suppressing the multiple re-rating that would otherwise accompany its 6.0x forward P/E. Warnings | Market capitalization rises above $1 billion over the next 12 months, enabling institutional coverage and a higher valuation multiple. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeclining revenue of -10% and below-average business quality scores suggest the sub-$1B market cap reflects genuine fundamental deterioration, not a temporary discount. | ||
A forward P/E of 6.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.05 indicate the stock is priced at a steep discount relative to its earnings outlook, offering substantial upside if business conditions stabilize. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 10x as revenue stabilization is confirmed, implying a price above $24. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates have fallen -32.3% over the past 30 days, suggesting the current low P/E may reflect analysts re-rating earnings lower rather than a true bargain. | ||
QuidelOrtho has beaten or exceeded estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the May 2026 quarter showing an actual loss of -$0.04 against an estimate of $0.36, but prior beats of 72% and 858% suggest underlying operational variability rather than structural decline. Earnings | Earnings per share surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter resulted in a -111% earnings surprise, and estimates trending down -32.3% signal that analysts have lost confidence in near-term profitability. | ||
With 24% of the float sold short, any positive catalyst could trigger a short squeeze, accelerating a recovery move; conversely, this level of short interest signals broad market skepticism about the company's near-term prospects. Key risks | Short interest declines below 15% as business fundamentals improve and the bear thesis weakens. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh implied volatility of 128% and below-average quality scores of 2.8 suggest the short sellers are positioned based on informed fundamental concern, not speculative momentum. | ||
At a market cap of approximately $0.99 billion, the company sits below the $1 billion minimum threshold considered investable, limiting institutional participation and suppressing the multiple re-rating that would otherwise accompany its 6.0x forward P/E.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Market capitalization rises above $1 billion over the next 12 months, enabling institutional coverage and a higher valuation multiple.
CounterDeclining revenue of -10% and below-average business quality scores suggest the sub-$1B market cap reflects genuine fundamental deterioration, not a temporary discount.
A forward P/E of 6.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.05 indicate the stock is priced at a steep discount relative to its earnings outlook, offering substantial upside if business conditions stabilize.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 10x as revenue stabilization is confirmed, implying a price above $24.
CounterEstimates have fallen -32.3% over the past 30 days, suggesting the current low P/E may reflect analysts re-rating earnings lower rather than a true bargain.
QuidelOrtho has beaten or exceeded estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the May 2026 quarter showing an actual loss of -$0.04 against an estimate of $0.36, but prior beats of 72% and 858% suggest underlying operational variability rather than structural decline.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter resulted in a -111% earnings surprise, and estimates trending down -32.3% signal that analysts have lost confidence in near-term profitability.
With 24% of the float sold short, any positive catalyst could trigger a short squeeze, accelerating a recovery move; conversely, this level of short interest signals broad market skepticism about the company's near-term prospects.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 15% as business fundamentals improve and the bear thesis weakens.
CounterHigh implied volatility of 128% and below-average quality scores of 2.8 suggest the short sellers are positioned based on informed fundamental concern, not speculative momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 8%, FCF yield 18.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.2 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 23%
- ▸High IV: 101%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.40
Upside
+6.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 0.40.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Quality at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Investable Market Cap
Trip ifMarket capitalization falls below $0.90 billion for more than 30 consecutive trading days.
- P2Deep Value Forward Pe
Trip ifEarnings estimates decline by more than 20% in a single quarter, pushing the forward P/E above 12x.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -50% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of the float.