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ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.38; Below-average business quality.

ProPetro Holding provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies primarily in the Permian Basin. Top customers ExxonMobil (24.9%), Occidental (13.7%), EOG (12.1%), and Permian Resources (11.2%) accounted for approximately 62% of... Read more

$18.25+0.6% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#30 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-0.18%
Stop $16.77Target $18.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$17.80-2.5%10 analysts
$18.13our TP
$18.25price
$17.80mean
$10
$23

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — ProPetro Holding Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (24.9%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (13.7%)
Target reached (-14.1% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)77.3
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn-1.1%
ROE-1.4%
Rev Growth-24.7%
Beta0.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C3.38bearish
IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExxonMobil25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Exxon Mobil Corporation ("ExxonMobil"), Occidental Petroleum Corporation, EOG Resources, Inc. and Permian Resources Corporation accounted for 24.9%, 13.7%, 12.1%, and 11.2%, respectively, of total revenue'
  • HIGHCustomerOccidental Petroleum Corporation14%
    10-K Item 1: 'Exxon Mobil Corporation ("ExxonMobil"), Occidental Petroleum Corporation, EOG Resources, Inc. and Permian Resources Corporation accounted for 24.9%, 13.7%, 12.1%, and 11.2%, respectively, of total revenue'
  • HIGHCustomertop five customers68%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top five customers accounted for approximately 68.2%, 58.8% and 63.2% of our revenue, for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our operations are located in the Permian Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in one major geographic area.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -24.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -25%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Current Ratio
5.9
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.13Resistance $18.50

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PUMP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $16.77. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PUMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.13 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $16.77. Stop-loss: $16.77.

What are the risks of investing in PUMP?

Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (24.9%); Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (13.7%); Target reached (-14.1% upside).

Is PUMP overvalued or undervalued?

ProPetro Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 77.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PUMP?

17 analysts cover PUMP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.

What does ProPetro Holding Corp. do?ProPetro Holding provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies...

ProPetro Holding provides hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and power generation services to E&P companies primarily in the Permian Basin. Top customers ExxonMobil (24.9%), Occidental (13.7%), EOG (12.1%), and Permian Resources (11.2%) accounted for approximately 62% of 2025 revenue; the recently launched PROPWR power generation business adds a new revenue stream.

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