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ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality.

ProPetro Holding Corp is a Midland, Texas-based energy services company providing hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and since 2025 natural gas-fueled power generation services primarily to E&P companies in the Permian Basin. Revenue depends on Permian Basin drilling... Read more

$18.00-0.4% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#31 of 32 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Stop $16.92Target $18.13(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$15.18-15.7%11 analysts
$18.13our TP
$18.00price
$15.18mean
$10
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Target reached (-27.4% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)1820.0
P/E (Fwd)63.1
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn0.1%
ROE0.1%
Rev Growth-9.6%
Beta0.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV94%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of our operations are located in the Permian Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in one major geographic area.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -9.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.1
Declining revenue: -10%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
5.8

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.7
Gross Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
1.4
Current Ratio
4.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.92Resistance $18.50

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PUMP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $16.92. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the PUMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.13 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.92. Stop-loss: $16.92.

What are the risks of investing in PUMP?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Target reached (-27.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is PUMP overvalued or undervalued?

ProPetro Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 1820.0 (forward 63.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PUMP?

16 analysts cover PUMP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $15.

What does ProPetro Holding Corp. do?ProPetro Holding Corp is a Midland, Texas-based energy services company providing hydraulic fracturing, wireline,...

ProPetro Holding Corp is a Midland, Texas-based energy services company providing hydraulic fracturing, wireline, cementing, and since 2025 natural gas-fueled power generation services primarily to E&P companies in the Permian Basin. Revenue depends on Permian Basin drilling activity and E&P capital spending driven by oil and gas prices.

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