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Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.49.

Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan sellers with global buyers, and Depop fashion resale (1.1B GMS, pending sale to eBay for 1.2B). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing fees, and... Read more

$63.97+8.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#17 of 18 Internet Retail
Stop $59.48Target $69.46(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$64.50+0.8%26 analysts
$69.46our TP
$63.97price
$64.50mean
$47
$83

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.49. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(5) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud
Target reached (-9.2% upside)
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.7
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$6.6B
EV/EBITDA18.8
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE
Rev Growth-3.1%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.49bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$30-53.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierGoogle Cloud
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Google Cloud for a substantial portion of the computing, storage, data processing, networking, and other services for the Etsy Marketplace'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.7
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Implied Vol
2.5
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
3.4
Days To Cover
4.7
News Risk
6.0
High short interest: 18%High IV: 65%Above max pain $30Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.65Resistance $70.88

Price Targets

$59
$69
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETSY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $63.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.49. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $59.48. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ETSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.46 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $59.48. Stop-loss: $59.48.

What are the risks of investing in ETSY?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Target reached (-9.2% upside); Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).

Is ETSY overvalued or undervalued?

Etsy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ETSY?

39 analysts cover ETSY with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Etsy, Inc. do?Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan...

Etsy operates two online marketplaces: the Etsy marketplace (10.5B GMS in 2025, 87.8% of total) connecting artisan sellers with global buyers, and Depop fashion resale (1.1B GMS, pending sale to eBay for 1.2B). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing fees, and listing fees.

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