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Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. At $59.17, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Etsy operates the Etsy marketplace (86.5M active buyers, $10.5B GMS in 2025) for handcrafted/vintage goods and Depop (resale fashion, $1.1B GMS, being sold to eBay in 2026). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing, listing fees, and on-site advertising; 74% of... Read more

$59.17+12.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#16 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.03%
Stop $54.60Target $64.55(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$71.72+21.2%25 analysts
$64.55our TP
$59.17price
$71.72mean
$85

Sell if holding. At $59.17, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Etsy, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.1
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn9.8%
ROE
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta1.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$30-49.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierGoogle Cloud
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Google Cloud for a substantial portion of the computing, storage, data processing, networking, and other services for the Etsy Marketplace.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Ma Position
4.2
Obv
6.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $56.29Resistance $70.88

Price Targets

$55
$65
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETSY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $59.17, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $54.60. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the ETSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.55 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $54.60. Stop-loss: $54.60.

What are the risks of investing in ETSY?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Cloud; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ETSY overvalued or undervalued?

Etsy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ETSY?

38 analysts cover ETSY with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Etsy, Inc. do?Etsy operates the Etsy marketplace (86.5M active buyers, $10.5B GMS in 2025) for handcrafted/vintage goods and Depop...

Etsy operates the Etsy marketplace (86.5M active buyers, $10.5B GMS in 2025) for handcrafted/vintage goods and Depop (resale fashion, $1.1B GMS, being sold to eBay in 2026). Revenue comes from transaction fees, payment processing, listing fees, and on-site advertising; 74% of Etsy marketplace GMS came from U.S. buyers.

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