Post Holdings is an attractively valued packaged food company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a PEG ratio of 0.21, but the combination of a death cross, 17% short interest, and high leverage at 2.4 times debt-to-equity creates meaningful risk that needs to be monitored before the value thesis can fully materialize.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Deep Value Low Peg↓Deteriorating
- Leverage And Momentum Double Headwind↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 21, 2025· older than 90 days
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.12 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across cereals, eggs, pet food, and refrigerated side dishes in North America, the U.K., and globally. Walmart accounted for 17.4% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales;... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.12 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About Post Holdings, Inc.
About Post Holdings, Inc.
Post Holdings' four operating segments generated revenue across cereal and granola (32.4% of consolidated net sales), eggs and egg products (29.6%), and pet food (19.2%) in fiscal 2025. Walmart was the largest single customer at 17.4% of consolidated net sales. Post Consumer Brands manufactures products at fifteen owned and six leased facilities in the U.S. and Canada, while the Weetabix segment operates four owned manufacturing facilities in the U.K. under the Weetabix and Alpen brands.
Post Consumer Brands sells cereals including Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal, alongside pet food brands Nutrish, 9Lives, and Kibbles 'n Bits, and Peter Pan peanut butter—primarily to grocery stores, mass merchants, and club stores, with Walmart alone accounting for 29.9% of the segment's net sales in fiscal 2025. Weetabix's main markets are the U.K. and European Union, with Tesco and Asda together representing 33.0% of Weetabix segment sales. The Foodservice segment distributes egg and potato products primarily through Sysco and US Foods, which together accounted for 42.0% of Foodservice segment sales in fiscal 2025. Input cost volatility from highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks, grain prices, and pork markets may weigh on Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail margins. Post completed its full acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions on July 1, 2025, and entered a definitive agreement in August 2025 to sell the 8th Avenue pasta business.
Show full overview
Customer concentration deepens at the segment level. Post Consumer Brands depends on Walmart for 29.9% of its net sales, and in the U.K., Weetabix's top two customers (Tesco and Asda) together represented 33.0% of segment sales in fiscal 2025. Refrigerated Retail's two largest customers, Walmart and Kroger, accounted for 34.9% of segment sales. The 10-K cautions that the loss of, or significant reduction in purchases by, any major customer may adversely affect financial condition—a risk that Post Holdings' multi-segment structure mitigates at the consolidated level but not within individual operating units.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From Post Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Post Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Bank99 Launches Small-Business Banking Services — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Is Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) Drawing Attention After Its conference call schedule? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) Drawing Attention After Its conference call schedule? - kalkinemedia.com — kalkinemedia.com Jul 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ALGN Stock Up Post Q2 Earnings and Revenue Beat, Margins Rise - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (HIPO) Hippo Holdings Inc. Posts Q2 Adjusted EPS $0.79 per Share - Moomoo — Moomoo Jul 30, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart17%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, accounted for 17.4% of our consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMProductcereal and granola32%10-K Item 1: 'Cereal and granola sold by our Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix segments together accounted for 32.4% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'
- MEDIUMProducteggs and egg products30%10-K Item 1: 'Eggs and egg products sold by our Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments together accounted for 29.6% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'
- LOWProductpet food19%10-K Item 1: 'Pet food sold by our Post Consumer Brands segment accounted for 19.2% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02MEDIUMRobert V. Vitale transitioned from President and CEO to Executive Chairman effective May 5, 2026. Nicolas Catoggio (COO, age 52, in role since Jan 2026) appointed as President and CEO. No reason cited beyond planned transition; no disagreement noted.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 2.02LOWPost Holdings issued Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings press release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Results furnished as Exhibit 99.1; not filed for Section 18 purposes.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.12 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $78.34. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $84.97 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $78.34. Stop-loss: $78.34.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5.
Post Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate POST, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $98.
What does Post Holdings, Inc. do?Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across...
Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across cereals, eggs, pet food, and refrigerated side dishes in North America, the U.K., and globally. Walmart accounted for 17.4% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales; cereal and granola represented 32.4% of net sales, eggs and egg products 29.6%, and pet food 19.2%.