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POSTPost Holdings, Inc.Sell5.7·$92.37+0.01%
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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across cereals, eggs, pet food, and refrigerated side dishes in North America, the U.K., and globally. Walmart accounted for 17.4% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales;... Read more

$92.37+15.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.56%
Stop $86.73Target $106.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$122.33+32.4%6 analysts
$106.43our TP
$92.37price
$122.33mean
$131

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Post Holdings, Inc.

About Post Holdings, Inc.

Post Holdings' four operating segments generated revenue across cereal and granola (32.4% of consolidated net sales), eggs and egg products (29.6%), and pet food (19.2%) in fiscal 2025. Walmart was the largest single customer at 17.4% of consolidated net sales. Post Consumer Brands manufactures products at fifteen owned and six leased facilities in the U.S. and Canada, while the Weetabix segment operates four owned manufacturing facilities in the U.K. under the Weetabix and Alpen brands.

Post Consumer Brands sells cereals including Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal, alongside pet food brands Nutrish, 9Lives, and Kibbles 'n Bits, and Peter Pan peanut butter—primarily to grocery stores, mass merchants, and club stores, with Walmart alone accounting for 29.9% of the segment's net sales in fiscal 2025. Weetabix's main markets are the U.K. and European Union, with Tesco and Asda together representing 33.0% of Weetabix segment sales. The Foodservice segment distributes egg and potato products primarily through Sysco and US Foods, which together accounted for 42.0% of Foodservice segment sales in fiscal 2025. Input cost volatility from highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks, grain prices, and pork markets may weigh on Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail margins. Post completed its full acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions on July 1, 2025, and entered a definitive agreement in August 2025 to sell the 8th Avenue pasta business.

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Customer concentration deepens at the segment level. Post Consumer Brands depends on Walmart for 29.9% of its net sales, and in the U.K., Weetabix's top two customers (Tesco and Asda) together represented 33.0% of segment sales in fiscal 2025. Refrigerated Retail's two largest customers, Walmart and Kroger, accounted for 34.9% of segment sales. The 10-K cautions that the loss of, or significant reduction in purchases by, any major customer may adversely affect financial condition—a risk that Post Holdings' multi-segment structure mitigates at the consolidated level but not within individual operating units.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

From Post Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$160+73.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerWalmart17%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Walmart, accounted for 17.4% of our consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMProductcereal and granola32%
    10-K Item 1: 'Cereal and granola sold by our Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix segments together accounted for 32.4% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'
  • MEDIUMProducteggs and egg products30%
    10-K Item 1: 'Eggs and egg products sold by our Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments together accounted for 29.6% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'
  • LOWProductpet food19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Pet food sold by our Post Consumer Brands segment accounted for 19.2% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Robert V. Vitale transitioned from President and CEO to Executive Chairman effective May 5, 2026. Nicolas Catoggio (COO, age 52, in role since Jan 2026) appointed as President and CEO. No reason cited beyond planned transition; no disagreement noted.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-07Item 2.02LOW
    Post Holdings issued Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings press release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Results furnished as Exhibit 99.1; not filed for Section 18 purposes.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.4
Rsi
3.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
5.2
Growth Rank
5.4
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $86.85Resistance $101.68

Price Targets

$87
$106
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is POST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $86.73. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the POST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.43 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $86.73. Stop-loss: $86.73.

What are the risks of investing in POST?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is POST overvalued or undervalued?

Post Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about POST?

14 analysts cover POST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Post Holdings, Inc. do?Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across...

Post Holdings operates four segments—Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail—across cereals, eggs, pet food, and refrigerated side dishes in North America, the U.K., and globally. Walmart accounted for 17.4% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales; cereal and granola represented 32.4% of net sales, eggs and egg products 29.6%, and pet food 19.2%.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · MKC-V (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)
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