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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.60 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company with four segments: Post Consumer Brands (cereals, pet food, nut butters), Weetabix (UK cereals), Foodservice (egg/potato products), and Refrigerated Retail (eggs, sausage, dairy, side dishes). In FY2025, cereal/granola... Read more

$103.60+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $98.34Target $106.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$122.43+18.2%7 analysts
$106.51our TP
$103.60price
$122.43mean
$131

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.60 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.8
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE8.7%
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta0.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$80-22.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductcereal and granola32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Cereal and granola sold by our Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix segments together accounted for 32.4% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025.'
  • MEDIUMProducteggs and egg products30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Eggs and egg products sold by our Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments together accounted for 29.6% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025.'
  • LOWProductpet food19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Pet food sold by our Post Consumer Brands segment accounted for 19.2% of our consolidated net sales for fiscal 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    February 3, 2026: Michelle M. Atkinson and Jeff A. Zadoks elected to Post Holdings Board, effective March 15, 2026, for terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. Board will expand to nine members.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-05Item 5.02LOW
    February 5, 2026: Greg Pearson named successor President/CEO of Post Consumer Brands segment effective April 1, 2026. Nicolas Catoggio continues as EVP/COO of Post Holdings; Catoggio's compensation unchanged.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $96.92Resistance $108.09

Price Targets

$98
$107
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is POST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $103.60 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $98.34. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the POST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.51 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $98.34. Stop-loss: $98.34.

What are the risks of investing in POST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is POST overvalued or undervalued?

Post Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about POST?

15 analysts cover POST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $122.

What does Post Holdings, Inc. do?Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company with four segments: Post Consumer Brands (cereals, pet food,...

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company with four segments: Post Consumer Brands (cereals, pet food, nut butters), Weetabix (UK cereals), Foodservice (egg/potato products), and Refrigerated Retail (eggs, sausage, dairy, side dishes). In FY2025, cereal/granola (32.4%), eggs/egg products (29.6%), and pet food (19.2%) were the three largest product categories by consolidated net sales.

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