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Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) (54.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.4%.

Central Garden & Pet is a US market leader in pet supplies and lawn/garden consumables with ~$3.1B in net sales, operating Pet (brands: Nylabone, Kaytee, Farnam) and Garden (brands: Pennington, Amdro, Ferry-Morse) segments. Revenue from branded and private-label products sold to... Read more

$38.36+6.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.85%
Stop $35.76Target $40.80(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$48.00+25.1%2 analysts
$40.80our TP
$38.36price
$48.00mean
$54

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) (54.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.4%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.9Qual5.5Grw6.4Mom4.9Sent6.2Ins5.0Peer4.0Tech5.5Risk6.06.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Central Garden & Pet Company

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) (54.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn5.4%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth8.7%
Beta0.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerWalmart (~17% of net sales)17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Walmart, our largest customer in fiscal 2025, represented approximately 17% of total net sales in fiscal 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon)54%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart, our largest customer, accounted for approximately 17% of total net sales in fiscal 2025...Together with Costco, Lowe’s and Amazon these major retailers represented approximately 54% of total net sales in fiscal 2025 and 2024'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    Kay M. Schwichtenberg appointed to Board of Directors effective March 1, 2026, also appointed to Audit Committee. Former EVP Animal & Public Health (retired Feb 2023). No disagreement cited for vacancy.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.36Resistance $41.53

Price Targets

$36
$41
A.Upside+6.4%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CENT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $38.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) (54.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.4%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $40.80 (+6.4%), stop $35.76 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CENT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.80 (+6.4% upside). Target $40.80 (+6.4%), stop $35.76 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $35.76.

What are the risks of investing in CENT?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 major retailers (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) (54.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is CENT overvalued or undervalued?

Central Garden & Pet Company trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CENT?

11 analysts cover CENT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Central Garden & Pet Company do?Central Garden & Pet is a US market leader in pet supplies and lawn/garden consumables with ~$3.1B in net sales,...

Central Garden & Pet is a US market leader in pet supplies and lawn/garden consumables with ~$3.1B in net sales, operating Pet (brands: Nylabone, Kaytee, Farnam) and Garden (brands: Pennington, Amdro, Ferry-Morse) segments. Revenue from branded and private-label products sold to national retailers; top-5 accounts (Walmart, Home Depot, Costco, Lowe's, Amazon) = ~54% of net sales in fiscal 2025.

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