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PNTGThe Pennant Group, Inc.Sell5.4·$39.91+3.61%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The Pennant Group is a healthcare services provider with 36% revenue growth and strong analyst consensus support, but a quality score of 3.4 out of 10 below the investable floor, an elevated put/call ratio of 6.00, and an asymmetry ratio of 0.74 that does not justify new risk at current prices near $33.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Investable FloorStable
  • Strong Revenue Growth RateStable
  • Institutional Accumulation SignalStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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The Pennant Group, Inc. (PNTG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

The Pennant Group is a U.S. healthcare services company operating home health, hospice, and senior living businesses across 16 states through 172 home health and hospice agencies and 63 senior living communities with 4,428 units as of December 31, 2025. The company derived 48.4%... Read more

$39.91-1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#22 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.43%
Stop $37.12Target $39.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$40.83+2.3%6 analysts
$39.20our TP
$39.91price
$40.83mean
$39
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The Pennant Group, Inc.

About The Pennant Group, Inc.

The Pennant Group operated 172 home health and hospice agencies and 63 senior living communities with 4,428 total units across 16 states and Connecticut as of December 31, 2025, generating 48.4% of total revenue from Medicare and 61.5% from government payors combined. The company has grown its agency and community count by 341.0% and 39.1%, respectively, since 2016, driven by a decentralized "cluster" operating model inherited from its 2019 spin-off from The Ensign Group.

Pennant operates through two reportable segments: home health and hospice services, which include nursing, therapy, hospice, home care, and geriatric primary/palliative care delivered in patients' homes, and senior living services, comprising assisted living, independent living, and memory care communities. The home health and hospice segment leans heavily on Medicare, which supplied 87.0% of hospice-service revenue and 43.8% of home-health-service revenue in 2025, while senior living revenue comes primarily from private pay (65.9%) supplemented by Medicaid (34.1%). Pennant grows through a disciplined acquisition strategy targeting strategic and underperforming operations in the fragmented home health, hospice, and senior living markets, where the top ten home health operators hold only about 25% of the market and the top ten hospice operators hold about 20%. The company also pursues organic growth and joint ventures with health systems, supported by a centralized "Service Center" that provides compliance, IT, human resources, and accounting functions to its locally led operating subsidiaries.

Show full overview

Pennant's hospice business carries a payor concentration that dwarfs its home health operations: Medicare supplied 87.0% of hospice-service revenue in 2025 versus 43.8% of home-health-service revenue, meaning any CMS rate cut, cap adjustment, or enhanced-oversight designation would fall disproportionately on the hospice segment. That risk is not hypothetical: CMS has progressively expanded a provisional period of enhanced prepayment review for newly enrolled, reactivated, or change-of-ownership hospice providers, growing the number of subject states to six as of January 2026, and hospice providers separately face annual per-beneficiary Medicare caps requiring repayment of amounts received above the cap. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act may also reduce federal matching funds for state Medicaid programs, a secondary payor channel that funds 34.1% of Pennant's senior living revenue.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From The Pennant Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — The Pennant Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-07T11:41:57Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: government payors (Medicare and Medicaid) (61.5%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Medicare (hospice services) (87.0%)
Target reached (-11.0% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.8
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA28.2
Profit Mgn3.0%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth36.0%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV81%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare48%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 48.4% of our revenue from the Medicare program for the year ended December 31, 2025, which is typical for our business.'
  • HIGHregulatorygovernment payors (Medicare and Medicaid)62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, 61.5% of our revenue was provided by government payors that reimburse us at predetermined rates, which is typical for our business.'
  • HIGHregulatoryMedicare (hospice services)87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Medicare| | 43.8 | %| | 87.0 | %| | — | %| | 48.4 | %'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
2.4
Roa
2.7
Roe
3.3
Current Ratio
4.6
Fcf Quality
4.9
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.1
52w Position
10.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
4.0
Growth Rank
8.3
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
88 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.66Resistance $40.00

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PNTG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $39.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.12. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PNTG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.20 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $37.12. Stop-loss: $37.12.

What are the risks of investing in PNTG?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: government payors (Medicare and Medicaid) (61.5%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: Medicare (hospice services) (87.0%); Target reached (-11.0% upside).

Is PNTG overvalued or undervalued?

The Pennant Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.8 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PNTG?

13 analysts cover PNTG with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does The Pennant Group, Inc. do?The Pennant Group is a U.S. healthcare services company operating home health, hospice, and senior living businesses...

The Pennant Group is a U.S. healthcare services company operating home health, hospice, and senior living businesses across 16 states through 172 home health and hospice agencies and 63 senior living communities with 4,428 units as of December 31, 2025. The company derived 48.4% of total 2025 revenue from Medicare and 61.5% from government payors combined, with its hospice segment alone generating 87.0% of revenue from Medicare, reflecting a decentralized "cluster" operating model inherited from its 2019 spin-off from The Ensign Group.

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