Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $213.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality.
Packaging Corporation of America is the third largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated products plants. It reports in Packaging, Paper, and Corporate segments, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $213.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerODP Corporation58%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, sales to ODP represented 58% of our Paper segment sales and 4% of our consolidated sales.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWPaul T. Stecko announced retirement from PCA Board, not standing for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. Fabian C. Strauss promoted to SVP Finance, Controller & Treasurer effective March 1, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $213.49: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $198.91. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $220.08 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $198.91. Stop-loss: $198.91.
Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%); Target reached (-5.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Packaging Corporation of Americ trades at a P/E of 26.2 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover PKG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $231.
What does Packaging Corporation of Americ do?Packaging Corporation of America is the third largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of...
Packaging Corporation of America is the third largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated products plants. It reports in Packaging, Paper, and Corporate segments, and completed the $1.8 billion acquisition of Greif's containerboard business in September 2025.