Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $229.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%).
Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $229.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Packaging Corporation of Americ
About Packaging Corporation of Americ
Packaging Corporation of America produced 5.2 million tons of containerboard across ten mills during 2025, ranking third in North America by capacity after completing the $1.8 billion acquisition of Greif's containerboard business in September 2025. The Packaging segment operates 91 corrugated products plants serving approximately 12,000 customers, while the Paper segment runs one mill in International Falls, Minnesota. Total employment stood at approximately 16,800 workers, with 57% of hourly employees under union contracts.
About 70% of Packaging segment corrugated products sales flow to regional and local accounts broadly diversified across industries; no single customer exceeds 10% of segment sales. The remaining 30% are national accounts served by multiple plants. The Paper segment is more concentrated: ODP Corporation represented 58% of Paper segment sales and 4% of consolidated revenue in 2025 under a supply agreement extended through December 31, 2026 — if not renewed, ODP's purchasing obligation phases down over two years beginning January 2027. Fiber is the largest manufacturing input; in 2025, 22% of containerboard fiber came from recycled sources net of internal generation, a share expected to grow following the Greif acquisition and Wallula mill restructuring. Natural gas constituted 76% of purchased fuel by volume at the packaging mills. Primary containerboard competitors include International Paper, Smurfit WestRock, Georgia-Pacific, and Pratt Industries.
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The company's highly unionized workforce carries meaningful contract-cycle exposure. Approximately 57% of PCA's 12,200 hourly employees work under collective bargaining agreements with five major unions — the United Steel Workers, Printing Packaging Production Workers Union, Association of Western Pulp and Paper Workers, International Association of Machinists, and International Brotherhood of Teamsters. Active negotiations to renew or extend recently expired contracts were underway at the time of the 10-K, and while PCA experienced no work stoppages in 2025, failure to renegotiate on acceptable terms could result in work stoppages that would adversely affect operations and financial condition.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
From Packaging Corporation of Americ's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Packaging Corporation of Americ
Latest news
- NEWS Packaging Corp. (PKG) Q1 Earnings Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACKAGING OF AMERICA ($PKG) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Packaging Corp. (PKG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Reports Strong Q1 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Packaging Corp of America tops profit estimates as box demand improves (PKG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerODP Corporation58%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our sales revenue to ODP represented 58% of our Paper segment sales revenue and 4% of our consolidated sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWPaul T. Stecko notified Board of intent to retire and not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting; no disagreement cited. Fabian C. Strauss promoted to SVP Finance, Controller & Treasurer as principal accounting officer, effective March 1, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $229.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $216.91. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $228.48 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $216.91. Stop-loss: $216.91.
Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Packaging Corporation of Americ trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover PKG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $236.
What does Packaging Corporation of Americ do?Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of...
Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and UFS paper to approximately 12,000 customers across roughly 27,000 locations; $7.7 billion in total costs in 2025.