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Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $205.05 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%).

Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and... Read more

$205.05+0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#15 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.16%
IncomeYield2.95%(5y avg 2.82%)Payout60.75%
Stop $195.81Target $203.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$234.30+14.3%10 analysts
$203.84our TP
$205.05price
$234.30mean
$167
$258

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $205.05 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.0Qual5.2Grw2.6Mom2.1Sent6.5Ins5.1Peer4.9Tech8.7Risk5.24.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Packaging Corporation of Americ

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$18.1B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.83
Dividend2.95%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.54bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$150-26.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerODP Corporation58%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our sales revenue to ODP represented 58% of our Paper segment sales revenue and 4% of our consolidated sales revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
    Paul T. Stecko notified Board of intent to retire and not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting; no disagreement cited. Fabian C. Strauss promoted to SVP Finance, Controller & Treasurer as principal accounting officer, effective March 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.2
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $201.87Resistance $231.27

Price Targets

$196
$204
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PKG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $205.05 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $195.81. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PKG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $203.84 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $195.81. Stop-loss: $195.81.

What are the risks of investing in PKG?

Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is PKG overvalued or undervalued?

Packaging Corporation of Americ trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PKG?

16 analysts cover PKG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $234.

What does Packaging Corporation of Americ do?Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of...

Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and UFS paper to approximately 12,000 customers across roughly 27,000 locations; $7.7 billion in total costs in 2025.

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