Provident Financial Services, I (PFS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the PFS stock price target?

Take-profit $21.92 (+1.0% upside). Target $21.92 (+1.0%), stop $20.84 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.2:1.

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 15 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 1:36 AM ET)

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Provident Financial Services operates Provident Bank, a NJ-chartered savings bank with 141 branches across NJ, PA, and NY following its May 2024 merger with Lakeland Bancorp. Revenue is primarily net interest income from a $19.5B loan portfolio concentrated in commercial real... Read more

$21.70+1.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#47 of 142 Banks - Regional

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield4.42%(5y avg 4.97%)Payout40.85%sustainable

Stop $20.84Target $21.92(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1

Analyst target$25.20+16.1%5 analysts

$21.92our TP

$21.70price

$25.20mean

$26

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE Loans as % of risk-based capital; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Provident Financial Services, I

Latest news

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Outperform on Provident Finl Servs, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga May 1, 2026 positive
Full Transcript: Provident Finl Servs Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
Provident Finl Servs Q1 EPS $0.61 Beats $0.55 Estimate, Sales $225.196M Beat $208.384M Estimate — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 positive
Earnings Scheduled For April 29, 2026 — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Risks

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE Loans as % of risk-based capital

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2

P/E (Fwd)8.7

Mkt Cap$2.8B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn34.6%

ROE11.1%

Rev Growth9.2%

Beta0.80

Dividend4.42%

Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish

IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans38%
10-K Item 1: 'Commercial mortgage loans| $| 7,398,792 | | | 38.30 | %'
MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial loans27%
10-K Item 1: 'Commercial loans| 5,200,517 | | | 26.92'
HIGHloan_portfolioCRE Loans as % of risk-based capital
10-K Item 1A: 'Our level of CRE Loans equaled 432.1% of total risk-based capital as of December 31, 2025. Based on the size of our CRE Loan portfolio as a percentage of capital, regulatory oversight of our management of this CRE concentration is elevated.'
MEDIUMregulatoryFDIC and NJDOBI
10-K Item 1A: 'We are subject to extensive regulation, supervision and examination by various regulatory authorities, but primarily by the NJDOBI, our chartering authority, and by the FDIC, as insurer of our deposits.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
Valerie O. Murray (President of Beacon Trust, EVP & Chief Wealth Management Officer) announced resignation effective May 22, 2026, to pursue other opportunities. No disagreement cited. Separation agreement includes $1.2M lump-sum payment. No successor named.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.415%1.26

Quality5.515%0.82

Growth5.815%0.87

Momentum4.710%0.47

Sentiment5.710%0.57

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.810%0.58

Technical Setup7.55%0.38

Risk Profile7.05%0.35

Catalyst6.45%0.32

Overall (Σ contributions)6.12

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

41 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.33Resistance $22.90

Price Targets

$21

$22

A.Upside+1.0%

A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.0% upside)

! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PFS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE Loans as % of risk-based capital; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $21.92 (+1.0%), stop $20.84 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.92 (+1.0% upside). Target $21.92 (+1.0%), stop $20.84 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $20.84.

What are the risks of investing in PFS?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: CRE Loans as % of risk-based capital; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is PFS overvalued or undervalued?

Provident Financial Services, I trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PFS?

9 analysts cover PFS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Provident Financial Services, I do?Provident Financial Services operates Provident Bank, a NJ-chartered savings bank with 141 branches across NJ, PA, and...