Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
PFS · Why this verdict
Why Provident Financial Services, I (PFS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Provident Financial Services has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average 9.7% upside surprise, trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x in a golden cross technical pattern, but 57% commercial real estate loan concentration and analyst targets already reached limit the near-term upside case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Provident Financial's loan portfolio is 57.3% concentrated in commercial real estate, creating a high-priority risk if commercial real estate values decline or vacancy rates rise significantly in its New Jersey and Pennsylvania markets. Bear case | Commercial real estate loan concentration declines below 50% of total loans within 24 months through portfolio diversification. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional banks in the Northeast have historically managed CRE concentration effectively; the specific markets served and underwriting standards matter more than the percentage concentration alone. | ||
Provident Financial has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters, including $0.61 versus $0.55 in the most recent period (an 11.3% beat), with consistent positive surprise averaging 9.7% across the year. Catalyst breakdown | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings beats can be driven by favorable loan loss provision releases rather than genuine revenue growth; beat streaks supported by reserve releases are inherently temporary. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG of 0.38, Provident Financial is attractively valued versus regional bank peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and net margins of 35%. Valuation breakdown | Stock re-rates toward a forward P/E of 12x within 12 months as the earnings consistency is recognized by the market. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets have already been reached and upside is limited to 0.8%; the valuation is attractive on paper but may be fully priced in at current levels based on existing consensus estimates. | ||
Provident Financial has a golden cross technical pattern with the 50-day above the 200-day moving average, RSI at 58, and MACD bullish, combined with rising on-balance volume indicating accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score remains above 6.5 for the next 6 months as the golden cross structure and volume accumulation are maintained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high within the target range reached zone; breakout momentum from golden crosses in small-cap financials is often temporary if it coincides with the asymmetry ceiling being hit. | ||
Provident Financial's loan portfolio is 57.3% concentrated in commercial real estate, creating a high-priority risk if commercial real estate values decline or vacancy rates rise significantly in its New Jersey and Pennsylvania markets.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate loan concentration declines below 50% of total loans within 24 months through portfolio diversification.
CounterRegional banks in the Northeast have historically managed CRE concentration effectively; the specific markets served and underwriting standards matter more than the percentage concentration alone.
Provident Financial has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters, including $0.61 versus $0.55 in the most recent period (an 11.3% beat), with consistent positive surprise averaging 9.7% across the year.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterRegional bank earnings beats can be driven by favorable loan loss provision releases rather than genuine revenue growth; beat streaks supported by reserve releases are inherently temporary.
At a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG of 0.38, Provident Financial is attractively valued versus regional bank peers, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and net margins of 35%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock re-rates toward a forward P/E of 12x within 12 months as the earnings consistency is recognized by the market.
CounterAnalyst targets have already been reached and upside is limited to 0.8%; the valuation is attractive on paper but may be fully priced in at current levels based on existing consensus estimates.
Provident Financial has a golden cross technical pattern with the 50-day above the 200-day moving average, RSI at 58, and MACD bullish, combined with rising on-balance volume indicating accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score remains above 6.5 for the next 6 months as the golden cross structure and volume accumulation are maintained.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high within the target range reached zone; breakout momentum from golden crosses in small-cap financials is often temporary if it coincides with the asymmetry ceiling being hit.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 5.3 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $139,845 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.36
Upside
-6.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Quality at 5.5, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS falls below $0.48 per quarter for 2 consecutive quarters, declining more than 15% below the current $0.55-$0.64 range.
- P2Attractive Regional Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 7x as earnings estimates are revised downward by more than 20%.
- P3Commercial Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate loan delinquency rate rises above 3% as disclosed in quarterly earnings supplements.
- P4Golden Cross Momentum Pattern
Trip ifStock price drops below $20, declining more than 13% below current levels and breaking the golden cross support structure.