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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally, with $1,814.6B in AUA and $781.0B in AUM as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is derived from fees on AUM/AUA, insurance premiums, and net investment income across... Read more

$100.45-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#95 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $95.71Target $99.50(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$99.33-1.1%12 analysts
$99.50our TP
$100.45price
$99.33mean
$87
$113

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.4% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$21.6B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.29%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$50-50.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Regional concentration of our commercial mortgage loan portfolio in California may subject us to losses attributable to economic downturns or catastrophes in that state.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
6.6
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $88.26Resistance $101.53

Price Targets

$96
$100
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $100.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $95.71. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.50 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $95.71. Stop-loss: $95.71.

What are the risks of investing in PFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PFG overvalued or undervalued?

Principal Financial Group Inc trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFG?

17 analysts cover PFG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Principal Financial Group Inc do?Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally,...

Principal Financial Group provides retirement, asset management, and workplace benefits/protection solutions globally, with $1,814.6B in AUA and $781.0B in AUM as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is derived from fees on AUM/AUA, insurance premiums, and net investment income across three segments: Retirement and Income Solutions, Principal Asset Management, and Benefits and Protection. The company targets small and medium businesses in the US as an underserved retirement/benefits market.

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