Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
PFG · Why this verdict
Why Principal Financial Group (PFG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Principal Financial trades at a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.01, making it attractively priced on most earnings-based valuation metrics for an asset management company. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands above 13x within 12 months as earnings stabilize and the valuation discount to peers narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in asset management firms can be persistent due to structural headwinds from fee compression, passive fund competition, and earnings cyclicality tied to market levels. | ||
Principal Financial achieves a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating broad-based improvement across nearly all standard financial health metrics including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above in the next annual financial report. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score in a financial services firm can reflect backward-looking improvement; if AUM declines in a market downturn, earnings and balance sheet metrics can deteriorate rapidly. | ||
Revenue is declining 4% year-over-year and the company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the two most recent consecutive misses in Q3 and Q4 2025 signaling emerging execution risk. Earnings | Revenue growth returns to positive territory above 3% and the company returns to EPS beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses following two beats suggests earnings volatility rather than a structural downtrend; the company may be in a normal earnings cyclicality pattern for an asset manager rather than fundamental deterioration. | ||
The stock at $110.59 is already above the analyst resistance target of $109.82, offering -0.7% upside and a risk/reward ratio of -0.19, meaning there is no reward for taking on downside risk at current prices. Warnings | Analyst targets are revised upward above $125 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and AUM growth resumes. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset manager stocks trade on market sentiment as much as fundamentals; a sustained equity market rally could push analyst targets higher rapidly even without material business improvement. | ||
Principal Financial trades at a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.01, making it attractively priced on most earnings-based valuation metrics for an asset management company.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands above 13x within 12 months as earnings stabilize and the valuation discount to peers narrows.
CounterLow multiples in asset management firms can be persistent due to structural headwinds from fee compression, passive fund competition, and earnings cyclicality tied to market levels.
Principal Financial achieves a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating broad-based improvement across nearly all standard financial health metrics including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above in the next annual financial report.
CounterA high Piotroski score in a financial services firm can reflect backward-looking improvement; if AUM declines in a market downturn, earnings and balance sheet metrics can deteriorate rapidly.
Revenue is declining 4% year-over-year and the company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with the two most recent consecutive misses in Q3 and Q4 2025 signaling emerging execution risk.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive territory above 3% and the company returns to EPS beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterTwo misses following two beats suggests earnings volatility rather than a structural downtrend; the company may be in a normal earnings cyclicality pattern for an asset manager rather than fundamental deterioration.
The stock at $110.59 is already above the analyst resistance target of $109.82, offering -0.7% upside and a risk/reward ratio of -0.19, meaning there is no reward for taking on downside risk at current prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward above $125 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and AUM growth resumes.
CounterAsset manager stocks trade on market sentiment as much as fundamentals; a sustained equity market rally could push analyst targets higher rapidly even without material business improvement.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Principal Financial Group trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.8x with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and positive price momentum, but revenue is declining 4% year-over-year, two recent earnings misses have emerged, and the stock is priced above analyst targets with negative upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,884,902 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 8.3 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.45
Upside
-19.8%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Quality at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Peer rank at 3.4, and Sentiment at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Pe
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 9x as earnings estimates are revised downward by more than 15%.
- P2Piotroski Balance Sheet Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in the next annual financial report, indicating deterioration across 3 or more health metrics.
- P3Revenue Decline Miss Streak
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 8% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, accelerating beyond the current 4% decline rate.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below $100, declining more than 9% below current levels and breaking the 52-week uptrend structure.