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Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Vaxcyte is a clinical-stage vaccine company developing broad-spectrum pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) using its XpressCF cell-free protein synthesis platform. It has no product revenue; the company had a net loss of $766.6M in 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $2.2B,... Read more

$48.63+95.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#95 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-6.29%
Stop $46.21Target $94.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.2:1
Analyst target$109.00+124.1%9 analysts
$94.83our TP
$48.63price
$109.00mean
$163

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vaxcyte, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: VAX-31 PCV franchise
Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.5
Mkt Cap$7.0B
EV/EBITDA-5.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-30.6%
Rev Growth
Beta1.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.02bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$35-28.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineVAX-31 PCV franchise
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business and future success depends on our ability to successfully develop, obtain regulatory approval of, and then commercialize our PCV candidates, which include VAX-31, our 31-valent clinical PCV candidate'
  • HIGHSupplierLonza
    10-K Item 1: 'We have access to substantial manufacturing resources through our contract manufacturer, Lonza, that we believe can facilitate an independent path to market.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.5
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 8.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.64Resistance $61.82

Price Targets

$46
$95
A.Upside+95.0%
A.R:R8.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCVX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $48.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.21. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PCVX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $94.83 (+95.0% upside). Prior stop was $46.21. Stop-loss: $46.21.

What are the risks of investing in PCVX?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: VAX-31 PCV franchise; Concentration risk — Supplier: Lonza; Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is PCVX overvalued or undervalued?

Vaxcyte, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PCVX?

17 analysts cover PCVX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Vaxcyte, Inc. do?Vaxcyte is a clinical-stage vaccine company developing broad-spectrum pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) using its...

Vaxcyte is a clinical-stage vaccine company developing broad-spectrum pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) using its XpressCF cell-free protein synthesis platform. It has no product revenue; the company had a net loss of $766.6M in 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $2.2B, funded by $2.4B in cash and investments as of December 31, 2025.

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