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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (37.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Sanofi.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical develops and commercializes rare disease medicines with 8 commercial products including VOXZOGO ($926.9M) for achondroplasia, VIMIZIM ($792.1M) for MPS IVA, and NAGLAZYME ($485.4M) for MPS VI, totaling $3.2B in 2025 revenues. Products target genetically... Read more

$49.99+59.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#103 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.79%
Stop $47.78Target $79.38(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 8.1:1
Analyst target$88.20+76.4%25 analysts
$79.38our TP
$49.99price
$88.20mean
$120

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (37.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Sanofi. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val7.8Qual6.1Grw1.6Mom2.3Sent7.6Ins3.9Peer4.1Tech7.3Risk5.74.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 59%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (37.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Sanofi
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.7
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta0.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.63bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-3 customers37%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, 37% of our net product revenue was generated by three customers'
  • HIGHCustomerSanofi
    10-K Item 1: 'Sanofi is our sole customer for ALDURAZYME and is responsible for distributing, marketing, and selling ALDURAZYME to third parties'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 8.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.26Resistance $57.44

Price Targets

$48
$79
A.Upside+58.8%
A.R:R8.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMRN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (37.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Sanofi. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $47.78. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BMRN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.38 (+59.4% upside). Prior stop was $47.78. Stop-loss: $47.78.

What are the risks of investing in BMRN?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (37.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Sanofi; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is BMRN overvalued or undervalued?

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.7 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BMRN?

32 analysts cover BMRN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $88.

What does BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. do?BioMarin Pharmaceutical develops and commercializes rare disease medicines with 8 commercial products including VOXZOGO...

BioMarin Pharmaceutical develops and commercializes rare disease medicines with 8 commercial products including VOXZOGO ($926.9M) for achondroplasia, VIMIZIM ($792.1M) for MPS IVA, and NAGLAZYME ($485.4M) for MPS VI, totaling $3.2B in 2025 revenues. Products target genetically defined small patient populations requiring high per-patient pricing with global commercialization. A pending $4.8B acquisition of Amicus Therapeutics is expected to close in Q2 2026.

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