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PAXPatria Investments LimitedBuy Wait6.8·$9.76
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Compounder Quality→Stable
  • Extreme Peg Valuation→Stable
  • Industry Growth Leadership→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

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Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Wait for pullback to $9.35. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.76. Engine's entry $9.35 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with... Read more

$9.76+32.2% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#10 of 229 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.61%
IncomeYield6.92%(5y avg 5.49%)Payout142.27%at-risk
Entry $9.35(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $8.76Target $12.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst consensus$14.83+52.0%6 analysts with price targets
$12.90our TP
$9.76price
$14.83mean
$20

Wait for pullback to $9.35. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.76. Engine's entry $9.35 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. | Falling knife (FK=6.5): wait for stabilization. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 3, 2026

Recent Developments — Patria Investments Limited

Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 10, 202796d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Falling knife score: 6.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE12.9%
Rev Growth34.9%
Beta0.79
Dividend6.92%
Analysts with ratings11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
4.8
Volume
8.4
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.03Resistance $12.15

Price Targets

$9
$9
$13
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-10 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $9.35. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.76. Engine's entry $9.35 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. | Falling knife (FK=6.5): wait for stabilization. Target $12.90 (+32.2%), stop $8.76 (−11.4%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.90 (+32.2% upside). Target $12.90 (+32.2%), stop $8.76 (−11.4%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $8.76.

What are the risks of investing in PAX?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Falling knife score: 6.5/10.

Is PAX overvalued or undervalued?

Patria Investments Limited trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PAX?

11 analysts rate PAX, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.

What does Patria Investments Limited do?Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private...

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.

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