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Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with... Read more

$11.05+25.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#15 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.61%Payout113.21%at-risk
Stop $10.58Target $13.67(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$15.71+42.2%7 analysts
$13.67our TP
$11.05price
$15.71mean
$20

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Patria Investments Limited

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn18.1%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta0.78
Dividend5.61%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$3-77.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.91Resistance $13.18

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+23.7%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $10.58. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.67 (+25.1% upside). Prior stop was $10.58. Stop-loss: $10.58.

What are the risks of investing in PAX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAX overvalued or undervalued?

Patria Investments Limited trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAX?

11 analysts cover PAX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Patria Investments Limited do?Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private...

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.

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