Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
PAX · Why this verdict
Why Patria Investments (PAX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Patria Investments is identified as having a wide economic moat with strong returns, growing revenue 22% year over year while maintaining operating margins at 18%, placing it in the top tier of alternative asset managers. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the high-growth compounder profile. | →Stable |
| CounterWide moat assessments in asset management are highly dependent on continued performance fee generation, which is vulnerable to market downturns and asset outflows. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.04 and forward P/E of 7.5x, Patria Investments is priced at a dramatic discount to its earnings growth trajectory, with 34% analyst upside to approximately $13.55. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $13.00 within 12 months as the market reprices the growth discount. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest growth may be decelerating, which could explain the low multiple rather than representing a mispricing opportunity. | ||
Patria ranks as an industry growth leader in the asset management sector with 22% year-over-year growth, far outpacing peers and indicating strong fund-raising momentum in Latin American alternative assets. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the industry growth leadership position. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a small-cap asset manager with $1.8B market cap concentrated in Latin America, growth can be disrupted by political risk or currency devaluation in key markets. | ||
Despite the 200-day moving average trending downward, the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 56, signaling a potential momentum recovery from the prior downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming the momentum recovery thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at 1.7% per month and earnings have missed twice recently, suggesting the recovery signal may not be durable. | ||
Patria Investments is identified as having a wide economic moat with strong returns, growing revenue 22% year over year while maintaining operating margins at 18%, placing it in the top tier of alternative asset managers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the high-growth compounder profile.
CounterWide moat assessments in asset management are highly dependent on continued performance fee generation, which is vulnerable to market downturns and asset outflows.
At a PEG ratio of 0.04 and forward P/E of 7.5x, Patria Investments is priced at a dramatic discount to its earnings growth trajectory, with 34% analyst upside to approximately $13.55.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $13.00 within 12 months as the market reprices the growth discount.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest growth may be decelerating, which could explain the low multiple rather than representing a mispricing opportunity.
Patria ranks as an industry growth leader in the asset management sector with 22% year-over-year growth, far outpacing peers and indicating strong fund-raising momentum in Latin American alternative assets.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the industry growth leadership position.
CounterAs a small-cap asset manager with $1.8B market cap concentrated in Latin America, growth can be disrupted by political risk or currency devaluation in key markets.
Despite the 200-day moving average trending downward, the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 56, signaling a potential momentum recovery from the prior downtrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming the momentum recovery thesis.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at 1.7% per month and earnings have missed twice recently, suggesting the recovery signal may not be durable.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.6 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $2,668,400 (0.151% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.65
Upside
+22.0%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.0, Value at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Catalyst at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating moat erosion.
- P2Extreme Peg Valuation
Trip ifPrice drops below $9.50 and holds below that level for more than 5 trading days, invalidating the valuation thesis.
- P3Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year for 3 or more consecutive quarters, confirming a sustained deceleration.
- P4Macd Recovery Signal
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below that level for more than 20 consecutive trading days after the MACD recovery.