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PAGSPagSeguro Digital Ltd.Hold5.7·$9.08+0.11%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

PagSeguro Digital trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.6x with a PEG of 0.38 and 245% free-cash-flow conversion, delivering a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but negative price momentum, 11% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.40 reflect persistent market skepticism about the Brazilian fintech's growth durability.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Value Low Forward PeStable
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Exceptional Free Cash Flow ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth.

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions,... Read more

$9.08+14.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#35 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield206.34%
IncomeYield11.47%Payout10.84%sustainable
Stop $8.49Target $10.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$11.92+31.3%14 analysts
$10.37our TP
$9.08price
$11.92mean
$7
$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 57%
Risks
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.5
P/E (Fwd)4.8
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA0.3
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta1.29
Dividend11.47%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$2-78.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Earnings Growth
4.4
GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.49Resistance $9.52

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+14.2%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts19
Consensus3.7/5
Avg Target$12

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAGS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.37 (+14.2%), stop $8.49 (−6.9%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.37 (+14.6% upside). Target $10.37 (+14.2%), stop $8.49 (−6.9%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $8.49.

What are the risks of investing in PAGS?

Weak growth.

Is PAGS overvalued or undervalued?

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 4.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PAGS?

19 analysts cover PAGS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $12.

What does PagSeguro Digital Ltd. do?PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers,...

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credit, cash, and prepaid cards; and credit products comprising FGTS withdrawals, payroll loans, working capital loans, and overdraft accounts. It offers insurance services, including account, card, home, business, health assistance, life, and credit life insurance; investment services, such as recommendation from our distribution team, financial education, stocks and REITs, investment, PagBank CD, Third-party fixed income, treasury, automatic savings and money boxes; and operates cashback and Shopping PagBank, a marketplace for various brands. In addition, it provides software solutions comprising PagVendas, a POS software app; ClubPag, a marketing tool that allows merchants to advertise across client base, available for POS devices; PlugPag, a wireless solution that connects the machine to the commercial automation system, via Bluetooth technology; and Envio Fácil, a logistics solution for online sales. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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