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PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.95 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions,... Read more

$8.95+19.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#28 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield203.87%
IncomeYield11.33%Payout10.84%sustainable
Stop $8.34Target $10.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$12.30+37.4%14 analysts
$10.70our TP
$8.95price
$12.30mean
$8
$15

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.95 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — PagSeguro Digital Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 58%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)4.7
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA0.3
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE14.5%
Rev Growth1.5%
Beta1.34
Dividend11.33%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C9.33bearish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Earnings Growth
4.4
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.60Resistance $11.00

Price Targets

$8
$11
A.Upside+19.6%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.95 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $8.34. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.70 (+19.6% upside). Prior stop was $8.34. Stop-loss: $8.34.

What are the risks of investing in PAGS?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is PAGS overvalued or undervalued?

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAGS?

19 analysts cover PAGS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $12.

What does PagSeguro Digital Ltd. do?PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers,...

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credit, cash, and prepaid cards; and credit products comprising FGTS withdrawals, payroll loans, working capital loans, and overdraft accounts. It offers insurance services, including account, card, home, business, health assistance, life, and credit life insurance; investment services, such as recommendation from our distribution team, financial education, stocks and REITs, investment, PagBank CD, Third-party fixed income, treasury, automatic savings and money boxes; and operates cashback and Shopping PagBank, a marketplace for various brands. In addition, it provides software solutions comprising PagVendas, a POS software app; ClubPag, a marketing tool that allows merchants to advertise across client base, available for POS devices; PlugPag, a wireless solution that connects the machine to the commercial automation system, via Bluetooth technology; and Envio Fácil, a logistics solution for online sales. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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