Penske Automotive trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5x with a Piotroski F-Score of only 2 out of 9 and below-floor quality score of 2.5, indicating weak fundamental health, while RSI at 77 and the stock at a 52-week high suggest the technical setup is overbought at a point of limited further analyst-supported upside.
Thesis pillars
- Critically Weak Piotroski Quality→Stable
- Overbought Rsi Late Cycle Risk↓Deteriorating
- Declining Revenue And Earnings Stagnation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.79: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.50; Below-average business quality.
Penske Automotive Group retails vehicles through 365 franchised dealerships and 45 commercial truck locations across seven countries, generating $31.8 billion in 2025 revenue. Revenue spans new vehicles (40.4%), used vehicles (28.1%), service/parts (10.6%), and retail commercial... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.79: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
About Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
Penske Automotive Group operated 365 retail automotive franchised dealerships across seven countries at December 31, 2025, generating $31.8 billion in total revenue with 71% of retail automotive dealership revenue from premium brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Audi. The 148 U.S. dealerships and 217 international locations employed over 27,700 people, with 61% of retail automotive dealership revenues generated in the U.S. and Puerto Rico in 2025.
Penske Automotive generated $27.5 billion from retail automotive dealerships in 2025, with service and parts (37.8% of retail automotive gross profit) and finance and insurance (15.7%) providing higher-margin counterweights to the lower-margin new vehicle (22.3% of gross profit) and used vehicle (9.0%) lines. Commercial truck operations through Premier Truck Group — 45 locations primarily selling Freightliner and Western Star (both Daimler brands) — contributed $3.4 billion in revenue with approximately 68% of gross profit from service and parts. The Penske Australia segment distributes Western Star, MAN, and Dennis Eagle commercial vehicles plus diesel and gas engines across Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific, adding $922.6 million. Earnings from the 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions contributed $192.8 million in equity earnings in 2025. Four manufacturer groups — BMW/MINI, Audi/Volkswagen/Porsche/Bentley, Toyota/Lexus, and Mercedes-Benz/Sprinter/smart — accounted for 73% of total automotive dealership revenues.
Show full overview
The 10-K explicitly discloses that four OEM groups accounted for 73% of total automotive dealership revenues in 2025: BMW/MINI at 25%, Audi/Volkswagen/Porsche/Bentley at 22%, Toyota/Lexus at 18%, and Mercedes-Benz/Sprinter/smart at 8%. Franchise agreements grant these manufacturers broad discretion to terminate or decline renewal for reasons outside the dealer's control, including third-party accumulation of Penske's stock. Without those agreements, Penske Automotive could not sell new vehicles or perform manufacturer-authorized warranty service — a structural dependency embedded in the franchise model.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
From Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Penske Automotive To Go Private In $16.3 Billion Deal — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Penske Automotive Group To Be Taken Private By Penske Corporation, Mitsui & Co. And Others For $212/Share In Cash At An — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Penske Automotive Group Raises Quarterly Cash Dividend From $1.44 To $1.46 Per Share — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Penske Automotive Group, Lowers Price Target to $210 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Penske Automotive Group, Lowers Price Target to $210 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $194.79: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $186.95. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $212.63 (-6.5% upside). Prior stop was $186.95. Stop-loss: $186.95.
Target reached (-6.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover PAG with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $209.
What does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. do?Penske Automotive Group retails vehicles through 365 franchised dealerships and 45 commercial truck locations across...
Penske Automotive Group retails vehicles through 365 franchised dealerships and 45 commercial truck locations across seven countries, generating $31.8 billion in 2025 revenue. Revenue spans new vehicles (40.4%), used vehicles (28.1%), service/parts (10.6%), and retail commercial trucks (10.7%); the company also holds 28.9% of Penske Transportation Solutions.