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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $156.46: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues, with retail automotive ($27.5B) split 61% US/Puerto Rico and 39% international. The company also holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (fleet... Read more

$156.46+3.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#15 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield2.14%
IncomeYield3.63%(5y avg 2.14%)Payout38.76%sustainable
Stop $150.72Target $161.63(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$185.78+18.7%9 analysts
$161.63our TP
$156.46price
$185.78mean
$206

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $156.46: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val6.7Qual2.5Grw1.3Mom1.9Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer5.2Tech8.6Risk4.84.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn2.9%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth-1.1%
Beta0.89
Dividend3.63%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$140-10.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.4
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
1.4
Operating Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.9
Piotroski F
2.2
Roa
2.9
Moat
3.6
Current Ratio
3.9
Roe
5.5
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 24% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $155.38Resistance $181.56

Price Targets

$151
$162
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $156.46: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $150.72. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $161.63 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $150.72. Stop-loss: $150.72.

What are the risks of investing in PAG?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is PAG overvalued or undervalued?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAG?

15 analysts cover PAG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $186.

What does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. do?Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues,...

Penske Automotive is a diversified international auto and commercial truck retailer generating $31.8B in 2025 revenues, with retail automotive ($27.5B) split 61% US/Puerto Rico and 39% international. The company also holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions (fleet leasing/logistics) and distributes commercial vehicles in Australia/New Zealand.

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