Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the PAG stock price target?

Take-profit $177.93 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $160.83.

Q: Is PAG overvalued or undervalued?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about PAG?

15 analysts cover PAG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $177.

Recovery setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.84: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality.

Penske Automotive Group is a diversified automotive and commercial truck retailer with 365 retail automotive franchised dealerships in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia, plus retail commercial truck and vehicle distribution operations. It generated... Read more

$171.84+4.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#14 of 16 Auto & Truck Dealerships

Stop $160.83Target $177.93(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1

Analyst target$177.22+3.1%9 analysts

$177.93our TP

$171.84price

$177.22mean

$155

$193

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: BMW/MINI, Audi/VW/Porsche/Bentley, Toyota/Lexus, Mercedes-Benz brands (73.0%)

Target reached (-9.7% upside)

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.2

P/E (Fwd)12.1

Mkt Cap$11.3B

EV/EBITDA13.3

Profit Mgn2.9%

ROE17.1%

Rev Growth-3.1%

Beta0.86

Dividend3.47%

Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral

IV44%normal

Max Pain$80-53.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerBMW/MINI, Audi/VW/Porsche/Bentley, Toyota/Lexus, Mercedes-Benz brands73%
10-K Item 1A: 'revenue generated at our BMW/MINI, Audi/Volkswagen/Porsche/Bentley, Toyota/Lexus, and Mercedes-Benz/Sprinter/smart dealerships represented 25%, 22%, 18%, and 8%, respectively, or 73% in aggregate'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.515%0.97

Quality2.915%0.43

Growth0.815%0.12

Momentum6.310%0.63

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity7.310%0.73

Peer Rank4.710%0.47

Technical Setup3.85%0.19

Risk Profile4.65%0.23

Catalyst5.75%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)4.73

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -3.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

1.7

Declining revenue: -3%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

1.3

Net Margin

1.5

Fcf Quality

2.6

Roa

3.1

Piotroski F

3.3

Current Ratio

3.9

Moat

5.0

Roe

5.7

Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger

0.0

Support Resistance

3.0

52w Position

8.3

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

76 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $146.17Resistance $181.56

Price Targets

$161

$178

A.Upside+3.5%

A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.7% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $171.84: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Prior stop was $160.83. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $177.93 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $160.83. Stop-loss: $160.83.

What are the risks of investing in PAG?

Concentration risk — Customer: BMW/MINI, Audi/VW/Porsche/Bentley, Toyota/Lexus, Mercedes-Benz brands (73.0%); Target reached (-9.7% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is PAG overvalued or undervalued?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAG?

15 analysts cover PAG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $177.

What does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. do?Penske Automotive Group is a diversified automotive and commercial truck retailer with 365 retail automotive franchised...