Ranpak shows strong technical support levels but a quality score below the engine's floor, a failed momentum gate, and a persistent earnings miss streak that together suggest the stock's prior price target already captured its near-term positives.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Floor Breach No Moat→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Momentum Gate Failure Falling Obv→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ranpak Holdings Corp (PACK) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.61: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems under the FillPak, PadPak, WrapPak, and Geami brands) and end-of-line automation and machine vision solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.61: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierSmurfit WestRock Company27%10-K Item 1A: 'we purchased approximately 60% and 27% of our raw paper requirements in North America and globally, respectively, from a single supplier, Smurfit WestRock Company'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina-based component suppliers for Automation systems10-K Item 1A: 'our suppliers, including those in China that supply a majority of the components and systems provided to our end-users, will experience operational delays'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.61: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.30. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.65 (+15.7% upside). Prior stop was $6.30. Stop-loss: $6.30.
Target reached (-8.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Ranpak Holdings Corp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -109.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover PACK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $7.
What does Ranpak Holdings Corp do?Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems...
Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems under the FillPak, PadPak, WrapPak, and Geami brands) and end-of-line automation and machine vision solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. The company generated $395.0 million in net revenue in 2025, roughly 47% from North America, 45% from Europe, and 8% from Asia, operating a razor/razor-blade model where proprietary systems are placed with distributors and end-users who then buy exclusive paper consumables. Approximately 60% of Ranpak's North American raw pap