Value
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
PACK · Why this verdict
Why Ranpak Holdings (PACK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits at 2.5, below the engine's 4.0 floor, reflecting the absence of a competitive moat in the packaging business. Quality breakdown | Quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA commoditized packaging business with no moat is unlikely to develop pricing power quickly, making a durable quality recovery difficult. | ||
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a deeply negative average surprise, raising concern about the reliability of forward estimates. Earnings | The company should return to beating or meeting consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA persistent miss streak often signals structural demand weakness that a single good quarter would not fully resolve. | ||
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.4 (below the 4.5 bar), with on-balance volume falling even though price remains above its 200-day moving average. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and OBV should turn back up over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling OBV while price holds above its long-term average often precedes a breakdown below that average, not a recovery. | ||
Technical readings are strong, with Bollinger and support/resistance scores near their maximum, suggesting the stock is well-supported at current levels. Components | The technical score should remain above 7.0 over the next 12 months, confirming continued support. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong technical support scores can persist right up until a breakdown, especially when momentum and quality are both weak, as here. | ||
The prior price target has already been reached, leaving upside of -8.1% at the current price per the model's target-reached flag. Bear case | A new, higher price target should be established to justify further appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReaching (or exceeding) a prior target with weak quality and momentum concurrently often precedes a pullback rather than a re-rating higher. | ||
Quality sits at 2.5, below the engine's 4.0 floor, reflecting the absence of a competitive moat in the packaging business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover above 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA commoditized packaging business with no moat is unlikely to develop pricing power quickly, making a durable quality recovery difficult.
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a deeply negative average surprise, raising concern about the reliability of forward estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to beating or meeting consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterA persistent miss streak often signals structural demand weakness that a single good quarter would not fully resolve.
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.4 (below the 4.5 bar), with on-balance volume falling even though price remains above its 200-day moving average.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and OBV should turn back up over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV while price holds above its long-term average often precedes a breakdown below that average, not a recovery.
Technical readings are strong, with Bollinger and support/resistance scores near their maximum, suggesting the stock is well-supported at current levels.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- The technical score should remain above 7.0 over the next 12 months, confirming continued support.
CounterStrong technical support scores can persist right up until a breakdown, especially when momentum and quality are both weak, as here.
The prior price target has already been reached, leaving upside of -8.1% at the current price per the model's target-reached flag.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher price target should be established to justify further appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterReaching (or exceeding) a prior target with weak quality and momentum concurrently often precedes a pullback rather than a re-rating higher.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ranpak shows strong technical support levels but a quality score below the engine's floor, a failed momentum gate, and a persistent earnings miss streak that together suggest the stock's prior price target already captured its near-term positives.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 1.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High IV: 108%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.76
Upside
-8.9%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.11>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.5, Sentiment at 5.4, and Momentum at 5.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Quality at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Floor Breach No Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.5.
- P2Momentum Gate Failure Falling Obv
Trip ifOBV continues falling for 2 consecutive quarters while momentum score stays below 3.0.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P4Strong Technical Support Resistance
Trip ifTechnical score falls below 5.0.
- P5Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% below the current level without a new analyst target being issued.