Skip to main content
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Bearish SignalDeteriorating
  • Best In Class Net MarginStable
  • Breakout Technical MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis

SellValueShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.02 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual... Read more

$47.02+0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#217 of 221 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.89%(5y avg 3.33%)Payout30.03%sustainable
Stop $45.59Target $47.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$54.44+15.8%9 analysts
$47.37our TP
$47.02price
$54.44mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.02 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 22d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 15, 202622d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 48%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.5%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.87
Dividend3.89%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.60bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -2.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 22d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.00Resistance $50.52

Price Targets

$46
$47
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-15 (22d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.02 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $45.59. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OZK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.37 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $45.59. Stop-loss: $45.59.

What are the risks of investing in OZK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OZK overvalued or undervalued?

Bank OZK trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OZK?

14 analysts cover OZK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Bank OZK do?Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services....

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other accounts, as well as time and reciprocal deposits. It offers trust and wealth services, such as personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, and retirement accounts; corporate trust services that include trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other related services; and treasury management services, which include automated clearing house, wire transfer, current and prior day transaction reporting, wholesale lockbox, remote deposit capture, automated credit line transfer, reconciliation, positive pay, commercial card, and other services, as well as zero balance and investment sweep accounts. In addition, the company provides real estate, consumer, small business, indirect recreational vehicle and marine, equipment, agricultural, commercial and industrial, government guaranteed, lines of credit, homebuilder, and housing loans; lender and structured, business aviation, and subscription financing services; and mortgage and other lending products. The company was formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks and changed its name to Bank OZK in July 2018. Bank OZK was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Related stocks: CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo) · FSBC (Five Star Bancorp) · HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings)
Home Stocks OZK

Latest news

Latest News

Seeking Alpha64d ago
Investing.com64d ago
Arkansas Business155d ago
GuruFocus155d ago
Yahoo Finance64d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative64d agoEarnings
The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette64d ago
Yahoo Finance Australia64d ago
GuruFocus64d ago
Talk Business &amp; Politics64d agoEarnings
10TV64d agoEarnings
Kare11.com64d agoEarnings
KING5.com64d agoEarnings
KVUE64d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com64d agoEarnings
TradingView64d agoEarnings
GlobeNewswire64d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance64d agoEarnings
Investing.com Nigeria64d agoEarnings
The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette65d agoEarnings
Loading more...