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OZKBank OZKHold5.4·$49.84-5.70%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Bearish SignalStable
  • Best In Class Net MarginStable
  • Breakout Technical MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $49.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual... Read more

$49.84+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#177 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.73%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout28.94%sustainable
Stop $47.14Target $52.32(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$52.56+5.4%9 analysts
$52.32our TP
$49.84price
$52.56mean
$40
$61

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $49.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05

Recent Developments — Bank OZK

Generated 2026-07-05T15:30:26Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 46%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn45.3%
ROE11.8%
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.73%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.38bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$33-34.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.8
Earnings Growth
2.8
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.41Resistance $53.39

Price Targets

$47
$52
A.Upside+5.0%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for OZK.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $49.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $52.32 (+5.0%), stop $47.14 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OZK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.32 (+5.0% upside). Target $52.32 (+5.0%), stop $47.14 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $47.14.

What are the risks of investing in OZK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Elevated risk factors.

Is OZK overvalued or undervalued?

Bank OZK trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OZK?

14 analysts cover OZK with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Bank OZK do?Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services....

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other accounts, as well as time and reciprocal deposits. It offers trust and wealth services, such as personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, and retirement accounts; corporate trust services that include trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other related services; and treasury management services, which include automated clearing house, wire transfer, current and prior day transaction reporting, wholesale lockbox, remote deposit capture, automated credit line transfer, reconciliation, positive pay, commercial card, and other services, as well as zero balance and investment sweep accounts. In addition, the company provides real estate, consumer, small business, indirect recreational vehicle and marine, equipment, agricultural, commercial and industrial, government guaranteed, lines of credit, homebuilder, and housing loans; lender and structured, business aviation, and subscription financing services; and mortgage and other lending products. The company was formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks and changed its name to Bank OZK in July 2018. Bank OZK was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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