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OZKBank OZKSell4.9·$49.31+1.92%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Bearish SignalImproving
  • Best In Class Net MarginImproving
  • Breakout Technical MomentumImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis

SellValueShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual... Read more

$49.31-3.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#215 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.79%(5y avg 3.33%)Payout30.03%sustainable
Stop $47.54Target $51.74(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$54.67+10.9%9 analysts
$51.74our TP
$49.31price
$54.67mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 15, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Margin of safety: 46%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.5%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.79%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Earnings Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -2%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
5.2
Rsi
8.3
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.23Resistance $52.80

Price Targets

$48
$52
A.Upside-3.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.6% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-15 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.31 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $47.54. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OZK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.74 (-3.6% upside). Prior stop was $47.54. Stop-loss: $47.54.

What are the risks of investing in OZK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OZK overvalued or undervalued?

Bank OZK trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OZK?

14 analysts cover OZK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Bank OZK do?Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services....

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other accounts, as well as time and reciprocal deposits. It offers trust and wealth services, such as personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, and retirement accounts; corporate trust services that include trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other related services; and treasury management services, which include automated clearing house, wire transfer, current and prior day transaction reporting, wholesale lockbox, remote deposit capture, automated credit line transfer, reconciliation, positive pay, commercial card, and other services, as well as zero balance and investment sweep accounts. In addition, the company provides real estate, consumer, small business, indirect recreational vehicle and marine, equipment, agricultural, commercial and industrial, government guaranteed, lines of credit, homebuilder, and housing loans; lender and structured, business aviation, and subscription financing services; and mortgage and other lending products. The company was formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks and changed its name to Bank OZK in July 2018. Bank OZK was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

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