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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Bearish Signal→Stable
  • Best In Class Net Margin→Stable
  • Breakout Technical Momentum→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellValueShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 7 days (2026-10-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $44.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual... Read more

$44.83+4.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#218 of 224 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.32%(5y avg 3.29%)Payout30.03%sustainable
Stop $42.71Target $46.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$53.78+20.0%9 analysts
$46.79our TP
$44.83price
$53.78mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. At $44.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 20, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 38%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn44.5%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.91
Dividend4.32%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV73%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.83Resistance $49.03

Price Targets

$43
$47
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-20 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $44.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $42.71. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OZK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.79 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $42.71. Stop-loss: $42.71.

What are the risks of investing in OZK?

Thin upside margin: 4.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is OZK overvalued or undervalued?

Bank OZK trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OZK?

14 analysts cover OZK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Bank OZK do?Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services....

Bank OZK operates as a full-service Arkansas state-chartered bank that provides retail and commercial banking services. The company provides deposit services, including non-interest-bearing checking, interest bearing transaction, business sweep, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other accounts, as well as time and reciprocal deposits. It offers trust and wealth services, such as personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, and retirement accounts; corporate trust services that include trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other related services; and treasury management services, which include automated clearing house, wire transfer, current and prior day transaction reporting, wholesale lockbox, remote deposit capture, automated credit line transfer, reconciliation, positive pay, commercial card, and other services, as well as zero balance and investment sweep accounts. In addition, the company provides real estate, consumer, small business, indirect recreational vehicle and marine, equipment, agricultural, commercial and industrial, government guaranteed, lines of credit, homebuilder, and housing loans; lender and structured, business aviation, and subscription financing services; and mortgage and other lending products. The company was formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks and changed its name to Bank OZK in July 2018. Bank OZK was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.

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