Value
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸Attractively valued
OZK · Why this verdict
Why Bank OZK (OZK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate. Key risks | Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests. | ||
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly. | ||
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset. V9 | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited. | ||
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient. | →Stable |
| CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory. | ||
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions.
CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests.
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined.
CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly.
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset.
↑ImprovingV9
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited.
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient.
CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 7.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.65
Upside
-8.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Technical at 6.2, and Sentiment at 5.6; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Momentum at 3.9, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Net Margin
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below $44 and the momentum score falls below 5.0.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Signal
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float.