Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.43
OZK · Why this verdict
Why Bank OZK (OZK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate. Key risks | Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests. | ||
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly. | ||
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset. V9 | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited. | ||
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory. | ||
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions.
CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests.
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined.
CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly.
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited.
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient.
CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| beta | 7.7 |
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.60
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Momentum at 7.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.0, Value at 6.9, and Quality at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Catalyst at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.60 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Net Margin
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below $44 and the momentum score falls below 5.0.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Signal
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float.