Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.05
- ▸Attractively valued
OZK · Why this verdict
Why Bank OZK (OZK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate. Key risks | Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests. | ||
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly. | ||
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset. V9 | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited. | ||
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient. | →Stable |
| CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory. | ||
Short interest of 14% of float and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.78 indicate a material bearish position from professional investors who expect the bank's fundamentals or credit quality to deteriorate.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 9% of float within 6 months as bearish theses fail to materialize and short sellers cover positions.
CounterAt 14% short interest and with the stock trading above analyst targets at a 52-week high, the short sellers may be better positioned than the price action currently suggests.
Bank OZK generates a net margin of 45%, placing it in the best-in-class tier among regional bank peers, combined with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicating strong and broad-based financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 35% for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods as the bank's loan portfolio and cost structure remain disciplined.
CounterHigh net margins at regional banks are often a product of interest rate environment rather than franchise quality; a rate compression cycle could narrow spreads and compress margins to peer-level norms rapidly.
The stock completed a golden cross with RSI at 67 and MACD bullish, above all key moving averages, with rising on-balance volume and a 7.7 momentum score — one of the strongest technical configurations in the dataset.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and momentum score remains above 6.0 for at least 3 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is 4.7% from its 52-week high and already above the analyst consensus target, meaning momentum buyers may be entering near a short-term ceiling where further upside is limited.
Bank OZK missed earnings estimates in 2 consecutive quarters before the most recent beat, and the 4-quarter record shows 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of negative 0.3%, pointing to an inconsistent execution pattern.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern was transient.
CounterAn even 2-and-2 record with negligible average surprise suggests analysts have found equilibrium with management guidance; the stock may be fairly priced at current earnings trajectory.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank OZK trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0x with best-in-class margins of 45% and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, but it is trading above its analyst price target at a 52-week high with 2 consecutive earnings misses and 14% short interest signaling professional skepticism.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.38
- ▸Above max pain $32
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 373.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.52
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.52 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.6, Value at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Net Margin
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below $44 and the momentum score falls below 5.0.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Signal
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float.