Bank First is an attractively valued, fast-growing regional bank with strong margins, but the price is 6.0% above the analyst target, earnings are volatile and real estate loans are 74.1% of the loan portfolio.
Thesis pillars
- Real Estate Loan Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg→Stable
- Industry Growth Leader→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Bank First Corporation (BFC) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%).
Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38 offices across 18 Wisconsin counties and one Illinois county, regulated by the OCC. The bank reported $4.51 billion in total assets, $3.60 billion in total loans, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 26, 2026Recent Developments — Bank First Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS PSB Holdings, Inc. Reaffirms Merger Timeline with Bank First Corporation — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Bank First Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026
- NEWS Bank First Corporation (BFC) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Bank First Corporation: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bank First Q3 Adj. EPS $2.35 Misses $2.63 Estimate, Sales $65.300M Miss $66.300M Estimate — benzinga Oct 20, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 26, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans74%10-K Item 1: 'loans secured by real estate made up approximately $2.67 billion, or 74.1%, of our loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans49%10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans made up approximately $1.78 billion or 49.3% of our loan portfolio'
- MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin and Illinois10-K Item 1A: 'a significant majority of our loans and deposits are made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Wisconsin and Illinois'
- MEDIUMregulatoryOCC10-K Item 1: 'the Bank is a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the “Federal Reserve”) and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (the “OCC”)'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-23Item 5.02LOWBank First Corporation elected three new directors — SriRaj Kantamneni, Tracy C. Pearson, and William J. Ring — to three-year terms effective June 16, 2026. Routine board expansion; no departure involved.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-18Item 5.02LOWEffective June 15, 2026, director Stephen E. Johnson retired from the Board; new directors Steven M. Eldred and Todd A. Sprang were elected, and incumbent director Timothy J. McFarlane was re-elected to a second term. Routine board change; no reason cited for Johnson's retirement.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-18Item 5.07LOWBank First Corporation's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held June 15, 2026: shareholders elected three director nominees and ratified Forvis Mazars, LLP as independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026. Routine vote results.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.60 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $139.42. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $138.55 reached (−7.4% from $149.60); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $139.42. Stop-loss: $139.42.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).
Bank First Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts rate BFC, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $163.
What does Bank First Corporation do?Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38...
Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38 offices across 18 Wisconsin counties and one Illinois county, regulated by the OCC. The bank reported $4.51 billion in total assets, $3.60 billion in total loans, and $3.70 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, serving businesses, professionals, and consumers through retail and commercial banking with approximately 380 employees. Real estate-secured loans make up 74.1% of the loan portfolio, with commercial real estate the largest single segment at 49.3%.