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Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%).

Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California, and also offers homeowners, commercial auto, and other lines. With $5.98 billion in total direct premiums written in 2025, the company distributes primarily... Read more

$103.01-1.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#5 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield28.02%
IncomeYield1.25%(5y avg 3.59%)Payout8.37%sustainable
Stop $95.85Target $101.78(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$120.00+16.5%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: moderate.

Val9.6Qual6.4Grw5.1Mom6.8Sent6.1Ins5.0Peer5.6Tech3.5Risk4.86.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Mercury General Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.7
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA3.9
Profit Mgn13.7%
ROE38.1%
Rev Growth10.5%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.25%
Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C2.12bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$40-61.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia85%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the Company generated approximately 85% of its direct automobile insurance premiums written in California'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.00Resistance $103.86

Price Targets

$96
$102
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $101.78 (-1.2%), stop $95.85 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.78 (-1.2% upside). Target $101.78 (-1.2%), stop $95.85 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $95.85.

What are the risks of investing in MCY?

Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MCY overvalued or undervalued?

Mercury General Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MCY?

5 analysts cover MCY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $120.

What does Mercury General Corporation do?Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California,...

Mercury General writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states through 12 subsidiaries, principally in California, and also offers homeowners, commercial auto, and other lines. With $5.98 billion in total direct premiums written in 2025, the company distributes primarily through ~8,510 independent agents; California represents 82.1% of total direct premiums written.

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