Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MCY stock price target?

Take-profit $97.40 (+0.3% upside). Target $97.40 (+0.3%), stop $92.79 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1.

Q: Is MCY overvalued or undervalued?

Mercury General Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about MCY?

5 analysts cover MCY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $110.

Breakout setup

HoldModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Mercury General Corporation writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states, principally California, through 12 insurance subsidiaries and ~8,510 independent agents. It generated $5.98B in direct premiums written in 2025, with 82.1% from California; it also writes homeowners,... Read more

$97.15+0.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty

Stop $92.79Target $97.40(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1

Analyst target$110.00+13.2%1 analysts

Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $97.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Risks

Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.

Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%)

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8

P/E (Fwd)12.0

Mkt Cap$5.3B

EV/EBITDA5.5

Profit Mgn9.0%

ROE24.8%

Rev Growth14.1%

Beta0.93

Dividend1.33%

Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral

IV62%elevated

Max Pain$55-43.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHGeographicCalifornia85%
10-K Item 1A: 'the Company generated approximately 85% of its direct automobile insurance premiums written in California'
MEDIUMProductmunicipal bonds44%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 44% of the Company's total investment portfolio at fair value ... were invested in tax-exempt municipal bonds'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.315%1.40

Quality5.315%0.79

Growth8.015%1.20

Momentum6.710%0.67

Sentiment5.610%0.56

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.010%0.50

Technical Setup4.65%0.23

Risk Profile5.75%0.29

Catalyst8.05%0.40

Overall (Σ contributions)6.54

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate

RSI

65 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $86.00Resistance $99.39

Price Targets

$93

$97

A.Upside+0.3%

A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.8% upside)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MCY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $97.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $97.40 (+0.3%), stop $92.79 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.40 (+0.3% upside). Target $97.40 (+0.3%), stop $92.79 (−4.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $92.79.

What are the risks of investing in MCY?

Single-region cliff: 85% exposure to California (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MCY overvalued or undervalued?

Mercury General Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MCY?

5 analysts cover MCY with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Mercury General Corporation do?Mercury General Corporation writes personal automobile insurance in 11 states, principally California, through 12...