Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
OMDA · Why this verdict
Why Omada Health (OMDA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 1.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 48 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 85 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,481,434 (0.111% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.3 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 2.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7, and Insider at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.