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HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorpoSell3.9·$20.61+1.00%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A healthcare real estate trust trading above its near-term technical resistance with a quality profile below the minimum investment threshold — no competitive moat, declining revenue, an elevated put/call ratio of 3.25 signaling heavy institutional hedging, and a flagged dividend sustainability concern — presents an unfavorable risk/reward that argues for exiting or avoiding the position.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Target Negative GeometryStable
  • Quality Below Minimum FloorStable
  • Elevated Put Call Institutional HedgingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo (HR) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3 billion in gross investment near hospital campuses across the U.S. Revenue comes from multi-year leases to physicians, surgery centers, and health systems at 90.4%... Read more

$20.61-0.8% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#15 of 16 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.00%
IncomeYield4.66%(5y avg 6.01%)Payout251.53%
Stop $19.84Target $20.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$21.08+2.3%12 analysts
$20.47our TP
$20.61price
$21.08mean
$18
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: medical office/outpatient
Target reached (-11.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-515.3
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA16.5
Profit Mgn-17.3%
ROE-4.2%
Rev Growth-6.5%
Beta0.82
Dividend4.66%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertymedical office/outpatient
    10-K Item 1: 'Medical office/outpatient 2| $| 9,306,615 | | 26,690 | | 481 | | 89.6 | %'
  • LOWGeographicDallas, TX
    10-K Item 1A: 'investment concentrations of greater than 5% of its total investments in the Dallas, TX (9.5%), Seattle, WA (6.1%), Houston, TX (6.0%), and Charlotte, NC (5.4%) markets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -6.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.9
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.5
Current Ratio
1.2
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Operating Margin
4.6
Fcf Quality
5.5
Gross Margin
8.4
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 2.0%)No competitive moat

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
2.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
6.1
P Ocf
6.8
P/OCF: 15.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.36Resistance $20.89

Price Targets

$20
$20
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.61: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.84. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the HR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.47 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $19.84. Stop-loss: $19.84.

What are the risks of investing in HR?

Concentration risk — Property Type: medical office/outpatient; Target reached (-11.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is HR overvalued or undervalued?

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -515.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HR?

20 analysts cover HR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo do?Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3...

Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3 billion in gross investment near hospital campuses across the U.S. Revenue comes from multi-year leases to physicians, surgery centers, and health systems at 90.4% portfolio occupancy. No single tenant exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · VTR (Ventas, Inc.)
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