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HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorpoSell4.9·$17.36
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A healthcare real estate trust trading above its near-term technical resistance with a quality profile below the minimum investment threshold — no competitive moat, declining revenue, an elevated put/call ratio of 3.25 signaling heavy institutional hedging, and a flagged dividend sustainability concern — presents an unfavorable risk/reward that argues for exiting or avoiding the position.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Target Negative Geometry→Stable
  • Quality Below Minimum Floor→Stable
  • Elevated Put Call Institutional Hedging↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo (HR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3 billion in gross investment near hospital campuses across the U.S. Revenue comes from multi-year leases to physicians, surgery centers, and health systems at 90.4%... Read more

$17.36+5.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#13 of 15 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield8.10%
IncomeYield5.53%(5y avg 5.68%)Payout826.67%
Stop $16.70Target $18.27(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$21.00+21.0%12 analysts
$18.27our TP
$17.36price
$21.00mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16

Recent Developments — Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo

Generated 2026-10-16T11:47:11Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: medical office/outpatient
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)385.8
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn-7.6%
ROE-1.9%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta0.84
Dividend5.53%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertymedical office/outpatient
    10-K Item 1: 'Medical office/outpatient 2| $| 9,306,615 | | 26,690 | | 481 | | 89.6 | %'
  • LOWGeographicDallas, TX
    10-K Item 1A: 'investment concentrations of greater than 5% of its total investments in the Dallas, TX (9.5%), Seattle, WA (6.1%), Houston, TX (6.0%), and Charlotte, NC (5.4%) markets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
4.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings in 13 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.83Resistance $18.46

Price Targets

$17
$18
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.36: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.70. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.27 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.70. Stop-loss: $16.70.

What are the risks of investing in HR?

Concentration risk — Property Type: medical office/outpatient; Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is HR overvalued or undervalued?

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 385.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HR?

21 analysts cover HR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Healthcare Realty Trust Incorpo do?Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3...

Healthcare Realty Trust is a self-managed REIT owning 502 consolidated outpatient medical properties totaling $10.3 billion in gross investment near hospital campuses across the U.S. Revenue comes from multi-year leases to physicians, surgery centers, and health systems at 90.4% portfolio occupancy. No single tenant exceeded 10% of consolidated revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: LTC (LTC Properties, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.)
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