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Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois.

Ventas is a healthcare REIT with 1,409 properties—senior housing communities, outpatient medical buildings, research centers, and hospitals—in North America and the UK, operated through SHOP, OM&R, and triple-net segments. NOI splits across SHOP (49.4%), outpatient... Read more

$87.75-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Stop $83.61Target $86.64(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$93.45+6.5%20 analysts
$86.64our TP
$87.75price
$93.45mean
$85
$102

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)158.9
P/E (Fwd)91.3
Mkt Cap$42.5B
EV/EBITDA24.2
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE2.1%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta0.77
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV29%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantArdent and Kindred
    10-K Item 1A: 'The portfolios leased by us to Ardent and Kindred represent a substantial portion of our NNN portfolio and account for a significant portion of our NNN revenues and NOI'
  • MEDIUMTenantAtria, Sunrise and Le Groupe Maurice
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on Atria, Sunrise and Le Groupe Maurice to manage a significant portion of the properties in our SHOP segment'
  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our revenues are derived from properties in California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Gregory R. Liebbe, SVP/Chief Accounting Officer/Controller of Ventas, resigned effective Feb 27, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. CFO Robert F. Probst will serve as interim CAO while a permanent successor is searched. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
9.9

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
4.6
Ps
5.6
P/OCF: 24.7x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $79.37Resistance $88.41

Price Targets

$84
$87
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $87.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $83.61. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.64 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $83.61. Stop-loss: $83.61.

What are the risks of investing in VTR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada and Illinois; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

Is VTR overvalued or undervalued?

Ventas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 158.9 (forward 91.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VTR?

25 analysts cover VTR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Ventas, Inc. do?Ventas is a healthcare REIT with 1,409 properties—senior housing communities, outpatient medical buildings, research...

Ventas is a healthcare REIT with 1,409 properties—senior housing communities, outpatient medical buildings, research centers, and hospitals—in North America and the UK, operated through SHOP, OM&R, and triple-net segments. NOI splits across SHOP (49.4%), outpatient medical/research (24.7%), and triple-net (24.6%). A substantial portion of revenues derive from properties in California, Texas, New York, Quebec, Canada, and Illinois.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · WELL (Welltower Inc.) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.)