Ventas is a healthcare REIT growing revenue at 22% annually with 570% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, but the stock offers only 4.4% upside to analyst targets, carries a below-average business quality score of 4.2, and has a dividend flagged as potentially yield-trap territory — limiting the near-term appeal despite solid operating momentum.
Thesis pillars
- Dividend Yield Trap Risk↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion↑Improving
- Industry Growth Leader↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026· older than 90 days
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
Ventas, Inc. owns 1,409 properties across three segments — senior housing operating (SHOP, 49.4% of NOI), outpatient medical and research (OM&R, 24.7%), and triple-net leased healthcare (NNN, 24.6%) — in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. The company earns $2.4 billion in annual NOI... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Ventas, Inc.
About Ventas, Inc.
Ventas's 1,409-property portfolio generated $2.4 billion in total NOI for 2025, concentrated in three healthcare-aligned property types: 752 senior housing communities in the SHOP segment (49.4% of NOI), 409 outpatient medical and research buildings in the OM&R segment (24.7%), and 213 triple-net leased healthcare facilities in the NNN segment (24.6%). California was the only state accounting for more than 10% of total revenues; Canada contributed 9.5% and the United Kingdom 1.2%.
Ventas earns revenue through three distinct structures. In the SHOP segment, the company participates directly in the financial performance of senior housing communities managed by 39 third-party operators; Atria Senior Living managed properties representing 17.7% of total 2025 NOI, Sunrise Senior Living 6.8%, and Le Groupe Maurice 5.6%. Managers receive annual fees calculated on revenue and NOI metrics with incentive provisions for performance targets. The OM&R segment leases outpatient medical buildings and research centers to health systems, universities, and biotechnology companies under fixed-term gross or modified leases; these properties generate stable NOI but expose the company to tenant credit risk without direct operational participation. The NNN segment deploys absolute-net leases to hospital operators including Ardent Health Partners (6.4% of total NOI) and Kindred Healthcare (5.8%), with rent escalators tied to the CPI or facility revenue metrics. The capital structure includes both secured and unsecured debt, and the 10-K identifies rising interest rates as a potential headwind to refinancing economics and acquisition capacity.
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The company's exposure to government funding represents a distinct risk not present in other REIT property types. University and academic medical center tenants in the OM&R segment may depend on NIH grants to partially fund rent payments; the 10-K notes that in 2025 the U.S. administration adopted substantial policy changes affecting research funding, which could impair these tenants' ability to meet lease obligations. Meanwhile, the Brookdale Senior Living lease portfolio — which accounted for 6.2% of total NOI in 2025 largely due to transitional properties — is expected to shrink materially from 2026 forward, as 42 properties converted to SHOP during 2025 and 3 more converted on January 1, 2026.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From Ventas, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Ventas, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS VENTAS ($VTR) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ventas (NYSE:VTR) Announces Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ventas Q3 earnings, revenue beat on senior housing organic growth (VTR:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS VENTAS ($VTR) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ventas (VTR) Q3 FFO and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantAtria Senior Living18%10-K Item 1: 'Atria Senior Living, Inc.| 17.7 | %'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1: 'properties in only one state (California) accounting for more than 10% of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUMEVP Peter J. Bulgarelli (Outpatient Medical & Research; President/CEO of Lillibridge Healthcare) retired May 1, 2026. Separation agreement entered May 12, 2026 providing prorated 2026 bonus. Retirement previously disclosed; no successor named for the EVP role.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.20 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $84.34. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $89.10 reached (−0.1% from $89.20); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $84.34. Stop-loss: $84.34.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Ventas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 171.5 (forward 128.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts rate VTR, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $99.
What does Ventas, Inc. do?Ventas, Inc. owns 1,409 properties across three segments — senior housing operating (SHOP, 49.4% of NOI), outpatient...
Ventas, Inc. owns 1,409 properties across three segments — senior housing operating (SHOP, 49.4% of NOI), outpatient medical and research (OM&R, 24.7%), and triple-net leased healthcare (NNN, 24.6%) — in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. The company earns $2.4 billion in annual NOI through direct SHOP operations managed by 39 third-party operators, fixed triple-net leases, and multi-tenant medical building leases.