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Owens Corning Inc (OC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.26: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43%), Insulation (36%), and Doors (21%) of 2025 segment net sales, recording $10.1B in net sales. The company sells primarily in North America through distributors, home centers, and lumberyards,... Read more

$123.26+0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#16 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
Stop $114.66Target $124.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$138.19+12.1%16 analysts
$124.37our TP
$123.26price
$138.19mean
$115
$172

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.26: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn-5.2%
ROE-4.2%
Rev Growth-16.8%
Beta1.34
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$210+70.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers (16% and 12% of net sales)16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we had two customers that represented 16% and 12% of our annual net sales, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 2.06MEDIUM
    Owens Corning will recognize additional ~$140M loss on sale of global glass reinforcements (GR) business due to revised purchase price terms and changes in net assets, subject to final adjustments.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-06Item 5.02LOW
    Director Maryann T. Mannen will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company. Board intends to reduce from ten to nine directors effective upon the 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -16.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -17%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
8.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.7
Operating Margin
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.8
Roa
4.9
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.5
Bollinger
3.2
52w Position
5.8
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $103.31Resistance $129.99

Price Targets

$115
$124
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.26: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $114.66. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $124.37 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $114.66. Stop-loss: $114.66.

What are the risks of investing in OC?

Target reached (0.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is OC overvalued or undervalued?

Owens Corning Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OC?

28 analysts cover OC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Owens Corning Inc do?Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43%), Insulation (36%), and Doors (21%)...

Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43%), Insulation (36%), and Doors (21%) of 2025 segment net sales, recording $10.1B in net sales. The company sells primarily in North America through distributors, home centers, and lumberyards, with Roofing demand driven by residential repair, remodeling, and storm activity.

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