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Owens Corning Inc (OC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43% of net sales), Insulation (36%), and Doors (21%), operating approximately 25,000 employees across 31 countries. It recorded $10.1 billion in net sales in 2025, serving residential and... Read more

$107.95+20.7% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#18 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield7.51%
IncomeYield2.74%(5y avg 1.56%)Payout31.58%sustainable
Stop $103.25Target $130.32(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$144.80+34.1%15 analysts
$130.32our TP
$107.95price
$144.80mean
$174

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Owens Corning Inc

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Todd Fister promoted to EVP, Chief Financial and Operating Officer effective May 1, 2026; he will retain CFO duties while an external CFO search is conducted. No CFO replacement named yet.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw material
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn-5.4%
ROE-9.4%
Rev Growth-10.5%
Beta1.35
Dividend2.74%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.86bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$75-30.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-2 customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we had two customers that represented 16% and 12% of our annual net sales, respectively.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole supplier raw material
    10-K Item 1: 'One of the raw materials important to this segment is sourced from a sole supplier.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Todd Fister promoted to EVP, Chief Financial and Operating Officer effective May 1, 2026; he will retain CFO duties while an external CFO search is conducted. No CFO replacement named yet.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-15Item 2.06MEDIUM
    Owens Corning will recognize an additional loss on sale of approximately $140 million related to revised terms on the sale of its global glass reinforcements business to Triumph Non-Ionics Pvt Ltd.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -10.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -10%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -5.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.4
Moat
2.5
Operating Margin
2.9
Roa
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Growth Rank
0.6
Value Rank
8.3
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $106.44Resistance $130.54

Price Targets

$103
$130
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $107.95: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $103.25. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.32 (+20.7% upside). Prior stop was $103.25. Stop-loss: $103.25.

What are the risks of investing in OC?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw material; Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is OC overvalued or undervalued?

Owens Corning Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OC?

28 analysts cover OC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Owens Corning Inc do?Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43% of net sales), Insulation (36%),...

Owens Corning is a building products manufacturer with three segments: Roofing (43% of net sales), Insulation (36%), and Doors (21%), operating approximately 25,000 employees across 31 countries. It recorded $10.1 billion in net sales in 2025, serving residential and non-residential construction markets.

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