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NVGSNavigator Holdings Ltd.Sell6.7·$23.02
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Navigator Holdings trades at an attractive forward P/E of 13.1x and carries a Piotroski score of 7/9, but revenue declined 7% year-over-year, the company missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and news sentiment has turned negative, limiting near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Value Metrics At Discount↑Improving
  • Strong Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Revenue Decline↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity... Read more

$23.02-3.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#12 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.35%
IncomeYield1.20%Payout12.04%sustainable
Stop $21.44Target $24.97(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$25.67+11.5%6 analysts
$24.97our TP
$23.02price
$25.67mean
$22
$27

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn22.8%
ROE11.7%
Rev Growth29.5%
Beta0.47
Dividend1.20%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.89Resistance $25.48

Price Targets

$21
$25
A.Upside-3.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $23.02 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.44. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

What is the NVGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.97 (-3.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.44. Stop-loss: $21.44.

What are the risks of investing in NVGS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is NVGS overvalued or undervalued?

Navigator Holdings Ltd. trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVGS?

14 analysts cover NVGS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Navigator Holdings Ltd. do?Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international...

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity traders. The company also provides ship shore infrastructure and consultancy services. It operates through a fleet of 57 semi- or fully-refrigerated liquefied gas carriers. Navigator Holdings Ltd. was formerly known as Isle of Man public limited company and changed its name to Navigator Holdings Ltd. in 2006. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

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