Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
NVGS · Why this verdict
Why Navigator Holdings (NVGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Navigator Holdings trades at an attractive forward P/E of 13.1x and carries a Piotroski score of 7/9, but revenue declined 7% year-over-year, the company missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and news sentiment has turned negative, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Navigator Holdings trades at a forward P/E of 13.1x and a PEG of 0.34, with the data explicitly noting the stock is attractively valued, suggesting the market is pricing in below-average expectations for a business that has produced 19% operating margins. Valuation breakdown | The price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 15x as earnings stabilize, lifting the stock price above $26 within 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAn attractively low P/E in the midstream energy sector may simply reflect the market correctly pricing in declining revenue of minus 7% year-over-year and persistent earnings misses rather than a valuation disconnect. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates the company scores positively across most profitability, leverage, and efficiency tests, demonstrating financial discipline even during a period of revenue headwinds. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 6 or above for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the quality floor holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score can lag deteriorating fundamentals by 1 to 2 quarters, and with revenue declining, near-term score degradation is plausible. | ||
Three consecutive earnings misses combined with 7% revenue decline indicate that Navigator Holdings is underperforming its own guidance and analyst forecasts, creating a credibility gap with the market. Bear case | Revenue growth turns positive above 3% within 2 quarters, demonstrating the decline has stabilized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 65% beat, which may signal that the earnings miss streak is ending, and the prior misses could reflect industry-wide rate softness that has since reversed. | ||
News sentiment turned negative enough to shift the recommendation from hold to sell, indicating that recent news flow contains material information that is bearish for near-term performance. Warnings | News sentiment returns to neutral within 3 months as the negative catalyst fades from the near-term news cycle. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single negative news event can trigger a sentiment modifier, and if the underlying business metrics improve, the news modifier would quickly revert to neutral and no longer be a headwind. | ||
Navigator Holdings trades at a forward P/E of 13.1x and a PEG of 0.34, with the data explicitly noting the stock is attractively valued, suggesting the market is pricing in below-average expectations for a business that has produced 19% operating margins.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 15x as earnings stabilize, lifting the stock price above $26 within 12 months.
CounterAn attractively low P/E in the midstream energy sector may simply reflect the market correctly pricing in declining revenue of minus 7% year-over-year and persistent earnings misses rather than a valuation disconnect.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates the company scores positively across most profitability, leverage, and efficiency tests, demonstrating financial discipline even during a period of revenue headwinds.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 6 or above for the next 4 reporting quarters, confirming the quality floor holds.
CounterA strong Piotroski score can lag deteriorating fundamentals by 1 to 2 quarters, and with revenue declining, near-term score degradation is plausible.
Three consecutive earnings misses combined with 7% revenue decline indicate that Navigator Holdings is underperforming its own guidance and analyst forecasts, creating a credibility gap with the market.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 3% within 2 quarters, demonstrating the decline has stabilized.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 65% beat, which may signal that the earnings miss streak is ending, and the prior misses could reflect industry-wide rate softness that has since reversed.
News sentiment turned negative enough to shift the recommendation from hold to sell, indicating that recent news flow contains material information that is bearish for near-term performance.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment returns to neutral within 3 months as the negative catalyst fades from the near-term news cycle.
CounterA single negative news event can trigger a sentiment modifier, and if the underlying business metrics improve, the news modifier would quickly revert to neutral and no longer be a headwind.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $726,595 (0.059% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
- ▸High IV: 101%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.30
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.9; weakest: Momentum at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Value at 8.4, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 4.2, Peer rank at 5.4, and Insider at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Value Metrics At DiscountTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth, or the stock price falls below $18.
- P2Strong Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 in any reported quarter.
- P3Earnings Miss Revenue Decline
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Negative News Sentiment Headwind
Trip ifNegative news events result in the sentiment modifier remaining at negative 1 for more than 60 consecutive days.