CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operates 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds and 20 reentry centers with approximately 4,000 beds through its... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About CoreCivic, Inc.
About CoreCivic, Inc.
CoreCivic, Inc. generated federal payments representing 54% of total revenue in 2025 and owned or controlled 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds at December 31, 2025. The company's CoreCivic Safety segment contributed 91.7% of segment net operating income that year; CoreCivic Community added 5.1% and CoreCivic Properties added 3.2%. Average compensated occupancy across all operated facilities reached 77% in 2025, up from 75% in 2024, and 86% excluding idled facilities.
CoreCivic earns revenue primarily from per-diem payments under facility management contracts with federal agencies — principally ICE, the USMS, and BOP — as well as state and local governments. Most contracts run one to five years with renewal options; the contract renewal rate for owned or controlled facilities was approximately 97% over the five years ended December 31, 2025. Under the per-diem structure, a decrease in occupancy directly reduces revenue because a substantial portion of the cost structure is fixed. Thirty-five facility contracts with maturity dates on or before December 31, 2026 — 22 of which carry renewal options — generated aggregate 2025 revenue of $688.1 million, equal to 31% of total revenue. Competition comes from government-run facilities and other private operators; the company competes primarily on bed availability, cost, ACA accreditation scores (averaging 99.6% across the CoreCivic Safety portfolio in 2025), and operational track record.
Show full overview
The federal government's role as CoreCivic's dominant customer is both the foundation of the business model and its central policy risk. On January 20, 2025, President Trump reversed the Biden executive order that had directed the DOJ to stop renewing private-detention contracts with the BOP and USMS — a reversal that expanded CoreCivic's contracting opportunities. However, a future administration could issue a similar restriction, and California Assembly Bill 1633, if enacted, would impose a 50% annual tax on gross receipts of private detention operators beginning January 1, 2027, directly threatening revenue from the company's California ICE facilities.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From CoreCivic, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — CoreCivic, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS U.S. House Of Representatives Passes $70B Immigration Enforcement Funding Bill — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS The Trump Administration On Tuesday It Will Designate Former ICE Official, Ex-Private Prison Executive David Venturella — benzinga May 13, 2026 negative
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CoreCivic Raises FY2026 FFO Guidance from $2.54-$2.64 to $2.58-$2.68 vs $2.62 Est — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS CoreCivic Q1 FFO $0.65 Beats $0.55 Estimate, Sales $614.729M Beat $604.475M Estimate — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T12:26:43Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerfederal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities54%10-K Item 1: 'Payments by federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities represented 54%...of our total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $25.20. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.74 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $25.20. Stop-loss: $25.20.
Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%); Target reached (-4.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
CoreCivic, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover CXW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.
What does CoreCivic, Inc. do?CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities,...
CoreCivic, the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operates 44 correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 design-capacity beds and 20 reentry centers with approximately 4,000 beds through its Safety and Community segments. Federal agencies — primarily ICE, the USMS, and BOP — account for 54% of total revenue, earned on a per-diem basis; average compensated occupancy across all operated facilities reached 77% in 2025.