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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

CoreCivic is the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operating through Safety (44 facilities, 91.7% of 2025 NOI), Community (20 facilities), and Properties (5 facilities) segments. Revenue comes from per diem... Read more

$21.01+23.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.53%
Stop $19.54Target $25.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$29.80+41.8%5 analysts
$25.93our TP
$21.01price
$29.80mean
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — CoreCivic, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE9.0%
Rev Growth25.8%
Beta0.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfederal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities54%
    10-K Item 1: 'Payments by federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities represented 54%, 51%, and 52% of our total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.7
Net Margin
2.8
Roe
3.0
Roa
3.2
Operating Margin
4.6
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
8.3
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -25% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5NEWS LEGALA.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.31Resistance $22.20

Price Targets

$20
$26
A.Upside+23.4%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CXW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.54. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CXW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.93 (+23.4% upside). Prior stop was $19.54. Stop-loss: $19.54.

What are the risks of investing in CXW?

Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is CXW overvalued or undervalued?

CoreCivic, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CXW?

9 analysts cover CXW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does CoreCivic, Inc. do?CoreCivic is the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities,...

CoreCivic is the nation's largest owner of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities, operating through Safety (44 facilities, 91.7% of 2025 NOI), Community (20 facilities), and Properties (5 facilities) segments. Revenue comes from per diem payments by federal, state, and local government agencies, with federal customers (ICE, USMS, BOP) representing 54% of 2025 revenue.

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