CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and Properties segments, serving as the nation largest owner of partnership correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 Safety beds. Revenue comes... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerfederal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities54%10-K Item 1: 'Payments by federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities represented 54%... of our total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $19.50. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.93 (+26.5% upside). Prior stop was $19.50. Stop-loss: $19.50.
Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
CoreCivic, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover CXW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.
What does CoreCivic, Inc. do?CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and...
CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and Properties segments, serving as the nation largest owner of partnership correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 Safety beds. Revenue comes primarily from per-diem payments from government agencies; federal authorities represented 54% of total revenue in 2025.