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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and Properties segments, serving as the nation largest owner of partnership correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 Safety beds. Revenue comes... Read more

$20.47+26.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 8 Security & Protection Services
Stop $19.50Target $25.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$29.80+45.6%5 analysts
$25.93our TP
$20.47price
$29.80mean
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE8.0%
Rev Growth26.0%
Beta0.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfederal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities54%
    10-K Item 1: 'Payments by federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities represented 54%... of our total revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.7
Net Margin
2.6
Roe
2.7
Roa
3.0
Operating Margin
3.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -1% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.5
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.80Resistance $20.89

Price Targets

$20
$26
A.Upside+26.7%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CXW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $19.50. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CXW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.93 (+26.5% upside). Prior stop was $19.50. Stop-loss: $19.50.

What are the risks of investing in CXW?

Concentration risk — Customer: federal correctional, detention and residential reentry authorities (54.0%); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is CXW overvalued or undervalued?

CoreCivic, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CXW?

9 analysts cover CXW with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does CoreCivic, Inc. do?CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and...

CoreCivic operates correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities through its Safety, Community, and Properties segments, serving as the nation largest owner of partnership correctional and detention facilities with approximately 68,000 Safety beds. Revenue comes primarily from per-diem payments from government agencies; federal authorities represented 54% of total revenue in 2025.

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