NOV Inc. has exceptional free cash flow conversion of 853% of net income and a strong balance sheet, but its quality score of 3.7 falls below the minimum floor, two recent consecutive earnings misses signal weakening profitability, and the price has already exceeded analyst consensus targets.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Below Quality Floor Score↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NOV Inc. (NOV) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. At $18.75, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy... Read more
Sell if holding. At $18.75, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — NOV Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on NOV, Lowers Price Target to $21 — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Underweight on NOV, Lowers Price Target to $20 — benzinga Jul 31, 2026 negative
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Positive on NOV, Raises Price Target to $24 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Buy on NOV, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS NOV Sees Q3 Sales $2.176B-$2.220B vs $2.187B Est — benzinga Jul 28, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $18.75, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.86. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $19.92 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $17.86. Stop-loss: $17.86.
Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
NOV Inc. trades at a P/E of 69.4 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover NOV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $22.
What does NOV Inc. do?NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and...
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.