NOV Inc. has exceptional free cash flow conversion of 853% of net income and a strong balance sheet, but its quality score of 3.7 falls below the minimum floor, two recent consecutive earnings misses signal weakening profitability, and the price has already exceeded analyst consensus targets.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Below Quality Floor Score↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NOV Inc. (NOV) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality.
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — NOV Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Positive on NOV, Lowers Price Target to $22 — benzinga Jul 8, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on NOV, Raises Price Target to $22 — benzinga Jun 18, 2026 positive
- NEWS NOV Announces Supplemental Dividend Of $0.09 Per Share — benzinga May 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Downgrades NOV to Underweight, Raises Price Target to $21 — benzinga May 8, 2026 negative
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on NOV, Raises Price Target to $22 — benzinga Apr 29, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-27T16:03:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.66. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.51 (-5.7% upside). Prior stop was $19.66. Stop-loss: $19.66.
Target reached (-5.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
NOV Inc. trades at a P/E of 83.0 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover NOV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $22.
What does NOV Inc. do?NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and...
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.