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NOV Inc. (NOV) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.30: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy... Read more

$21.30-1.7% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#29 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.22%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 1.25%)Payout210.00%at-risk
Stop $19.97Target $20.81(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$21.20-0.5%20 analysts
$20.81our TP
$21.30price
$21.20mean
$17
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.30: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — NOV Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-9.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)84.7
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE1.5%
Rev Growth-2.4%
Beta0.92
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV60%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Director On March 17, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of NOV Inc. (the "Company") appointed Sanjay K.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    NOV INC. | | | Date: | February 20, 2026 | By: | /s/ Peter F. Vranderic | | | Peter F. Vranderic Vice President * * *
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -2%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 149.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
9.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Roe
0.5
Net Margin
0.5
Operating Margin
0.9
Roa
2.1
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.4
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 853% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.14Resistance $21.23

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside-2.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.30: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.97. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the NOV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.81 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $19.97. Stop-loss: $19.97.

What are the risks of investing in NOV?

Target reached (-9.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap).

Is NOV overvalued or undervalued?

NOV Inc. trades at a P/E of 84.7 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOV?

24 analysts cover NOV with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $21.

What does NOV Inc. do?NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and...

NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Energy Equipment, and Energy Products and Services. The Energy Products and Services segment offers drill bits and borehole enlargement products; independent drilling and intervention downhole tools equipment; frac plugs, frac sleeves, toe initiation burst port systems, and recyclable setting tools; electric submersible pumps, high viscosity pumps, and surface pumps; tubular coating and inspection services for drill-pipe and other oil country tubular goods; solids control and waste management equipment and services; data and digital solutions; precision-engineered drill pipe and drill-stem equipment; connectors and integral thread solutions, including conductor strings, surface casing, and liners; and composite pipe, tanks, and structures. Its Energy Equipment segment provides drilling equipment, such as land rigs, complete offshore drilling packages, and rig components; capital equipment, related consumables, and digital products for hydraulic stimulation, coiled tubing, and wireline services; marine and construction solutions; processing solutions for the separation and treatment of oil, gas, solids, seawater, and produced water production; flexible subsea pipe systems; cavity pumps, specialized mixers and heat exchangers; and reciprocating, multistage, and progressive cavity pumps, midstream products, including closures, transfer pumps, chokes and valves, as well as artificial lift support systems that include production BOPs and stuffing boxes. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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