NNN REIT operates a net-lease retail property portfolio with strong margins and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, but the current price has exceeded analyst fair value targets, the put-to-call ratio is an extreme 8.75, and free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income.
Thesis pillars
- Top Trade Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Extreme Put Call Ratio↓Deteriorating
- Free Cash Flow Quality Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026· older than 90 days
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%).
NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, totaling ~39.6 million sq ft with a 10.2-year weighted average lease term and 98.3% occupancy at December 31, 2025. The REIT earns rental income under... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About NNN REIT, Inc.
About NNN REIT, Inc.
NNN REIT's 3,692 single-tenant net-lease properties were 98.3% leased with a 10.2-year weighted average remaining lease term at December 31, 2025, spanning all 50 states and Puerto Rico across ~39.6 million square feet. Automotive service, convenience stores, restaurants, entertainment, and dealerships generate 63.0% of annual base rent, with Texas accounting for 18.4% of that base rent. NNN has raised its annual dividend per common share for 36 consecutive years, holding the third-longest consecutive annual dividend increase record among all publicly traded REITs.
NNN earns revenue primarily under triple-net leases in which tenants bear full responsibility for utilities, real estate taxes, property insurance, maintenance, repairs, and capital expenditures—minimizing the REIT's direct property operating cost. Initial lease terms are typically 10 to 20 years, the majority including rent escalators tied to the Consumer Price Index or fixed annual increases. Annual base rent per property ranged from $11,000 to $4,085,000 (average $256,000) at December 31, 2025. The company's capital structure at year-end consisted entirely of unsecured debt: $4.47 billion in unsecured notes payable and $348.1 million outstanding on its revolving Credit Facility, with no secured debt and a total-debt-to-gross-assets ratio of approximately 42%. Debt maturities range from 2026 to 2052. NNN competes for single-tenant acquisition opportunities against other REITs, commercial developers, and institutional investors.
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NNN's geographic concentration adds correlated risk: 40.9% of annual base rent comes from properties in five states, with Texas alone at 18.4% and Florida at 8.7%. A significant portion of NNN's tenants are unrated; the company evaluates their credit through internal underwriting rather than published ratings, a methodology the 10-K acknowledges may not accurately assess investment-related credit risk. Single-tenant structures magnify this exposure because a default or lease non-renewal at a property built to suit a specific tenant may result in vacancy or substantial re-tenanting costs. As of December 31, 2025, no tenants were in bankruptcy with projected material losses.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From NNN REIT, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — NNN REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NNN REIT (NNN) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS NNN Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 245.37M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS NNN REIT, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $47.22 - TradingView — TradingView Aug 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS NNN REIT earnings beat by $0.01, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com — Investing.com Aug 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings call transcript: NNN REIT tops Q2 2026 estimates as guidance rises - Investing.com — Investing.com Aug 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertytop-6 lines of trade63%10-K Item 1A: '63.0% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from tenants in six lines of trade: automotive service (18.6%) ... and dealerships (6.6%)'
- LOWTenanttop-5 tenants18%10-K Item 1A: '17.8% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from five tenants: 7-Eleven (4.3%) ... and Kent Distributors (2.6%)'
- MEDIUMGeographictop-5 states41%10-K Item 1A: '40.9% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from properties located in five states: Texas (18.4%) ... and Ohio (4.2%)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.99. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $41.63 reached (−0.2% from $41.69); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $39.99. Stop-loss: $39.99.
Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
NNN REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate NNN, with a consensus score of 3.3/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $46.
What does NNN REIT, Inc. do?NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto...
NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, totaling ~39.6 million sq ft with a 10.2-year weighted average lease term and 98.3% occupancy at December 31, 2025. The REIT earns rental income under triple-net leases where tenants bear operating costs, with properties concentrated in automotive service, convenience stores, restaurants, entertainment, and dealerships. NNN has raised its annual dividend per common share for 36 consecutive years.