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NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away).

NNN REIT is a net-lease REIT owning 3,692 single-tenant commercial properties in all 50 states with 98.3% occupancy and a 10.2-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes primarily from triple-net lease rents from tenants in retail, automotive,... Read more

$44.31-0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#22 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-16.75%
IncomeYield5.49%(5y avg 5.18%)Payout116.10%
Stop $42.94Target $44.09(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$45.97+3.7%15 analysts
$44.09our TP
$44.31price
$45.97mean
$50

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — NNN REIT, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn41.4%
ROE8.8%
Rev Growth4.1%
Beta0.80
Dividend5.49%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas18%
    10-K Item 1A: '40.9% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from properties located in five states: Texas (18.4%), Florida (8.7%), Illinois (5.1%), Georgia (4.5%) and Ohio (4.2%).'
  • LOWTenant7-Eleven4.3%
    10-K Item 1A: '17.8% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from five tenants: 7-Eleven (4.3%), Mister Car Wash (3.8%), Dave & Buster's (3.6%), Camping World (3.5%) and Kent Distributors (2.6%)'
  • MEDIUMPropertyautomotive service / convenience stores / restaurants
    10-K Item 1A: '63.0% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from tenants in six lines of trade: automotive service (18.6%), convenience stores (16.3%), restaurants (including full and limited service) (14.3%)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Steven D. Cosler retired as Board Chairperson effective February 18, 2026. Edward J. Fritsch, independent director since 2012, appointed as new Chair. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.5
Revenue Growth
3.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.3
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.5
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-14.4%)
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.71Resistance $44.99

Price Targets

$43
$44
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.7% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NNN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $42.94. Score 4.3/10, high confidence.

What is the NNN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.09 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $42.94. Stop-loss: $42.94.

What are the risks of investing in NNN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is NNN overvalued or undervalued?

NNN REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NNN?

25 analysts cover NNN with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $46.

What does NNN REIT, Inc. do?NNN REIT is a net-lease REIT owning 3,692 single-tenant commercial properties in all 50 states with 98.3% occupancy and...

NNN REIT is a net-lease REIT owning 3,692 single-tenant commercial properties in all 50 states with 98.3% occupancy and a 10.2-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes primarily from triple-net lease rents from tenants in retail, automotive, restaurant, entertainment and other sectors; NNN has raised its annual dividend for 36 consecutive years. Its largest tenants and geographies are disclosed with material concentration in automotive service (18.6%), convenience (16.3%), Texas (18.4%), and top-5 tenants at 17.8% of rent.

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