NNN REIT operates a net-lease retail property portfolio with strong margins and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, but the current price has exceeded analyst fair value targets, the put-to-call ratio is an extreme 8.75, and free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income.
Thesis pillars
- Top Trade Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Extreme Put Call Ratio↓Deteriorating
- Free Cash Flow Quality Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NNN REIT, Inc. (NNN) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Sell if holding. At $41.30, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%).
NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, totaling ~39.6 million sq ft with a 10.2-year weighted average lease term and 98.3% occupancy at December 31, 2025. The REIT earns rental income under... Read more
Sell if holding. At $41.30, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About NNN REIT, Inc.
About NNN REIT, Inc.
NNN REIT's 3,692 single-tenant net-lease properties were 98.3% leased with a 10.2-year weighted average remaining lease term at December 31, 2025, spanning all 50 states and Puerto Rico across ~39.6 million square feet. Automotive service, convenience stores, restaurants, entertainment, and dealerships generate 63.0% of annual base rent, with Texas accounting for 18.4% of that base rent. NNN has raised its annual dividend per common share for 36 consecutive years, holding the third-longest consecutive annual dividend increase record among all publicly traded REITs.
NNN earns revenue primarily under triple-net leases in which tenants bear full responsibility for utilities, real estate taxes, property insurance, maintenance, repairs, and capital expenditures—minimizing the REIT's direct property operating cost. Initial lease terms are typically 10 to 20 years, the majority including rent escalators tied to the Consumer Price Index or fixed annual increases. Annual base rent per property ranged from $11,000 to $4,085,000 (average $256,000) at December 31, 2025. The company's capital structure at year-end consisted entirely of unsecured debt: $4.47 billion in unsecured notes payable and $348.1 million outstanding on its revolving Credit Facility, with no secured debt and a total-debt-to-gross-assets ratio of approximately 42%. Debt maturities range from 2026 to 2052. NNN competes for single-tenant acquisition opportunities against other REITs, commercial developers, and institutional investors.
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NNN's geographic concentration adds correlated risk: 40.9% of annual base rent comes from properties in five states, with Texas alone at 18.4% and Florida at 8.7%. A significant portion of NNN's tenants are unrated; the company evaluates their credit through internal underwriting rather than published ratings, a methodology the 10-K acknowledges may not accurately assess investment-related credit risk. Single-tenant structures magnify this exposure because a default or lease non-renewal at a property built to suit a specific tenant may result in vacancy or substantial re-tenanting costs. As of December 31, 2025, no tenants were in bankruptcy with projected material losses.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From NNN REIT, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — NNN REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NNN REIT (NNN) Expected to Release Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS NNN REIT in the spotlight: Can earnings sustain dividend streak? - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK neutral
- NEWS NNN REIT in the spotlight: Can earnings sustain dividend streak? By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia neutral
- NEWS NNN REIT in the spotlight: Can earnings sustain dividend streak? - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS What is the sentiment on NNN REIT (NNN) stock today | Q4 2025: Earnings Beat Estimates - Balance Sheet - Cổng thông tin — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Tây Ninh positive
Generated 2026-09-26T04:42:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertytop-6 lines of trade63%10-K Item 1A: '63.0% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from tenants in six lines of trade: automotive service (18.6%) ... and dealerships (6.6%)'
- LOWTenanttop-5 tenants18%10-K Item 1A: '17.8% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from five tenants: 7-Eleven (4.3%) ... and Kent Distributors (2.6%)'
- MEDIUMGeographictop-5 states41%10-K Item 1A: '40.9% of the Property Portfolio annual base rent is generated from properties located in five states: Texas (18.4%) ... and Ohio (4.2%)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $41.30, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.78. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $42.96 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $39.78. Stop-loss: $39.78.
Concentration risk — Property Type: top-6 lines of trade (63.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
NNN REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover NNN with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $48.
What does NNN REIT, Inc. do?NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto...
NNN REIT owns 3,692 single-tenant, freestanding net-lease commercial properties across all 50 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico, totaling ~39.6 million sq ft with a 10.2-year weighted average lease term and 98.3% occupancy at December 31, 2025. The REIT earns rental income under triple-net leases where tenants bear operating costs, with properties concentrated in automotive service, convenience stores, restaurants, entertainment, and dealerships. NNN has raised its annual dividend per common share for 36 consecutive years.