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MRSHMarshSell5.2·$164.81+1.41%
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Marsh (MRSH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $164.81: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak growth.

Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27B in annual revenue advising clients in 130 countries through Risk and Insurance Services (64% of revenue, including Marsh Risk and Guy Carpenter) and Consulting (36%, including Mercer and Marsh... Read more

$164.81+10.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#8 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.34%
IncomeYield2.22%(5y avg 1.44%)Payout43.94%sustainable
Stop $157.16Target $182.01(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$202.24+22.7%21 analysts
$182.01our TP
$164.81price
$202.24mean
$236

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $164.81: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Marsh

Generated 2026-06-09T22:26:35Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$78.3B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE27.6%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.22%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.94bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$120-27.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Mark McGivney's role expanded from SVP and CFO to EVP, COO & CFO effective April 15, 2026. Salary increased to $1.25M; no departure of personnel.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Nick Studer to succeed Martin South as President and CEO of Marsh Risk, effective April 1, 2026. South transitions to SVP and Chief Client Officer. Clean successor handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Harrison, age 59, appointed as independent Board member effective February 25, 2026. No committee assignments determined yet. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.4
Support Resistance
3.4
52w Position
4.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
5.6
Value Rank
6.1
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $156.60Resistance $169.17

Price Targets

$157
$182
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts31
Consensus3.5/5
Avg Target$202

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRSH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $164.81: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $157.16. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRSH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $182.01 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $157.16. Stop-loss: $157.16.

What are the risks of investing in MRSH?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MRSH overvalued or undervalued?

Marsh trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRSH?

31 analysts cover MRSH with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $202.

What does Marsh do?Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27B in annual revenue advising clients in...

Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27B in annual revenue advising clients in 130 countries through Risk and Insurance Services (64% of revenue, including Marsh Risk and Guy Carpenter) and Consulting (36%, including Mercer and Marsh Management Consulting). Revenue is generated from insurance brokerage commissions, consulting fees, and asset-based fees across more than 95,000 employees.

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