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Marsh (MRSH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $166.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.7%.

Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27 billion in annual revenue advising clients in 130 countries across risk, reinsurance, and consulting. Its Risk and Insurance Services segment (Marsh Risk and Guy Carpenter) generates approximately... Read more

$166.65+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Stop $160.11Target $182.79(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$203.10+21.9%21 analysts
$182.79our TP
$166.65price
$203.10mean
$236

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $166.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$82.3B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE27.6%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.75
Dividend2.11%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$145-13.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Mark McGivney appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer effective April 15, 2026. Previously served as Senior VP and CFO. No departure noted for a predecessor in the COO role.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02LOW
    Nick Studer to succeed Martin South as President and CEO of Marsh Risk effective April 1, 2026. South transitions to SVP and Chief Client Officer. No reason cited for transition.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Harrison, age 59, appointed as independent director of Marsh and McLennan effective February 25, 2026. Committee assignments to be disclosed in proxy statement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
4.5
Value Rank
5.1
Quality Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $165.06Resistance $183.45

Price Targets

$160
$183
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRSH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $166.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 9.7%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $160.11. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRSH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $182.79 (+9.7% upside). Prior stop was $160.11. Stop-loss: $160.11.

What are the risks of investing in MRSH?

Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak growth.

Is MRSH overvalued or undervalued?

Marsh trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRSH?

30 analysts cover MRSH with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $203.

What does Marsh do?Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27 billion in annual revenue advising...

Marsh (formerly Marsh McLennan) is a global professional services firm with $27 billion in annual revenue advising clients in 130 countries across risk, reinsurance, and consulting. Its Risk and Insurance Services segment (Marsh Risk and Guy Carpenter) generates approximately 64% of revenue, with the Consulting segment providing the remainder.

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