Arthur J. Gallagher delivered 35% year-over-year revenue growth and a cluster of six recent analyst upgrades signals renewed institutional interest, yet the stock remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend with a 5.2% monthly slope decline. Free cash flow converts at only 67 cents per dollar of net income — a quality gap that tempers the strong top-line story — while the 10.2% gap to the analyst price target with a 1.79-to-1 risk/reward offers meaningful room to run if the technical and earnings recovery sustains.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration→Stable
- Earnings Recovery After Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Downtrend 200ma Headwind↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Wait for pullback to $224.43. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.31. Engine's entry $224.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party claims administration globally, with brokerage at 87% of 2025 revenues. Fees and commissions are earned by placing coverage for commercial and nonprofit clients... Read more
Wait for pullback to $224.43. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.31. Engine's entry $224.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Latest news
- NEWS Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp Sells 16,797 Shares of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. $AJG - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS AJG stock trades near highs as Arthur J. Gallagher reports double digit revenue growth - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de positive
- NEWS KBC Group NV Sells 21,321 Shares of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. $AJG - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Slips 2.1% as Broader Market Pressure Weighs on Insurance Broker - MA Crossover - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Sit Global Dividend Growth Fund's Arthur J. Gallagher & Co(AJG) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T18:52:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOWDirector Sherry Barrat informed AJG on March 6, 2026 of her decision to retire from the Board, effective May 12, 2026 at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Board size to reduce from ten to nine. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $224.43. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.31. Engine's entry $224.43 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $256.68 (+0.9%), stop $210.80 (−20.6%), A.R:R -0.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $256.68 (-0.4% upside). Target $256.68 (+0.9%), stop $210.80 (−20.6%), A.R:R -0.0:1. Stop-loss: $210.80.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a P/E of 40.2 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
29 analysts cover AJG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $281.
What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party...
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party claims administration globally, with brokerage at 87% of 2025 revenues. Fees and commissions are earned by placing coverage for commercial and nonprofit clients without assuming underwriting risk. The third-largest insurance broker by revenue globally, with ~72,000 employees and a $67 billion market cap at year-end 2025.