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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.07 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting, and third-party claims administration globally through 650+ U.S. and 400 international offices in 60 countries. Revenue is primarily commissions and fees from... Read more

$205.32+22.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#9 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Entry $210.07(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $199.54Target $244.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$271.42+32.2%19 analysts
$244.28our TP
$205.32price
$271.42mean
$388

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.07 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.9
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$54.5B
EV/EBITDA19.2
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth36.7%
Beta0.68
Dividend1.32%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.64bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$160-22.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Sherry Barrat informed Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. on March 6, 2026 of her decision to retire from the Board of Directors effective May 12, 2026, upon director elections at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Board will reduce from 10 to 9 members. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
8.2
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $202.78Resistance $226.00

Price Targets

$200
$210
$244
A.Upside+19.0%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $210.07 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $244.28 (+19.0%), stop $199.54 (−2.9%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AJG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $244.28 (+22.4% upside). Target $244.28 (+19.0%), stop $199.54 (−2.9%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $199.54.

Is AJG overvalued or undervalued?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a P/E of 36.9 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AJG?

28 analysts cover AJG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $271.

What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting,...

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting, and third-party claims administration globally through 650+ U.S. and 400 international offices in 60 countries. Revenue is primarily commissions and fees from its brokerage segment (87%) and risk management segment (13%), with approximately 67% from U.S. operations.

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