Skip to main content

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $200.42: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker by revenues, providing insurance brokerage, reinsurance, risk management, and claims settlement services through 650+ U.S. offices and 400+ international offices in ~60 countries. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$200.42+20.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.07%
IncomeYield1.38%(5y avg 1.01%)Payout42.88%sustainable
Stop $186.10Target $240.39(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$267.11+33.3%19 analysts
$240.39our TP
$200.42price
$267.11mean
$388

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $200.42: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.9
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$52.3B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn11.4%
ROE7.0%
Rev Growth34.6%
Beta0.55
Dividend1.38%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.11bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$320+59.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.1
Value Rank
2.4
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $190.75Resistance $221.28

Price Targets

$186
$240
A.Upside+19.9%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $200.42: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $186.10. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AJG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $240.39 (+20.2% upside). Prior stop was $186.10. Stop-loss: $186.10.

What are the risks of investing in AJG?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AJG overvalued or undervalued?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a P/E of 32.9 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AJG?

29 analysts cover AJG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $267.

What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker by revenues, providing insurance brokerage,...

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker by revenues, providing insurance brokerage, reinsurance, risk management, and claims settlement services through 650+ U.S. offices and 400+ international offices in ~60 countries. Revenue is primarily commissions and fees; the brokerage segment is 87% of revenues and the ten largest clients together represent only ~3% of combined revenues.

Related stocks: BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) · WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) · AON (Aon plc) · MRSH (Marsh) · ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company)