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Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $317.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. revenue (51.8%); Thin upside margin: 9.6%.

Aon is a global professional services firm operating two segments—Risk Capital (insurance/reinsurance brokerage, analytics) and Human Capital (health, wealth, talent consulting)—serving clients in 120+ countries with ~60,000 employees. Total revenue was $17,181M in 2025; the... Read more

$317.73+9.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.83%
IncomeYield1.01%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout16.36%sustainable
Stop $301.83Target $348.58(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$387.32+21.9%19 analysts
$348.58our TP
$317.73price
$387.32mean
$298
$436

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $317.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. revenue (51.8%); Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Aon plc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. revenue (51.8%)
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.8
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$69.1B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE46.4%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.71
Dividend1.01%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$480+51.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. revenue52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 51.8% of our consolidated revenue is non-U.S., attributed on the basis of where the services are performed, and where products are sold'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
8.9
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $306.41Resistance $330.22

Price Targets

$302
$349
A.Upside+9.7%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts28
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$387

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $317.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. revenue (51.8%); Thin upside margin: 9.6%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $348.58 (+9.7%), stop $301.83 (−5.3%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $348.58 (+9.6% upside). Target $348.58 (+9.7%), stop $301.83 (−5.3%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $301.83.

What are the risks of investing in AON?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. revenue (51.8%); Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is AON overvalued or undervalued?

Aon plc trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AON?

28 analysts cover AON with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $387.

What does Aon plc do?Aon is a global professional services firm operating two segments—Risk Capital (insurance/reinsurance brokerage,...

Aon is a global professional services firm operating two segments—Risk Capital (insurance/reinsurance brokerage, analytics) and Human Capital (health, wealth, talent consulting)—serving clients in 120+ countries with ~60,000 employees. Total revenue was $17,181M in 2025; the single largest client accounts for approximately 1% of total revenue, indicating a highly diversified client base.

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