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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aon is a high-return insurance broker (ROE 43%, 22% margins) with insider buying and a dividend-aristocrat record, but the price of $321.67 is essentially at the $323.05 analyst target, growth is slow and estimates are trending down.

Thesis pillars

  • High Return Quality Franchise↑Improving
  • Price At Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
  • Insider Buying Signal→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $344.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5.

Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue... Read more

$344.40-5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 15 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.02%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout17.13%sustainable
Stop $326.38Analyst target $326.89(reached)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst consensus$363.21+5.5%19 analysts with price targets
$344.40price
$363.21mean
$259
$435

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $344.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Aon plc

About Aon plc

Aon plc's Risk Capital segment generated $11.3 billion in 2025 revenue and Human Capital contributed $5.9 billion, producing total consolidated revenue of $17.2 billion across 120+ countries, with approximately 51.8% of that revenue derived from non-U.S. operations attributed to where services are performed. The firm employs roughly 60,000 people and competes against Marsh McLennan, Willis Towers Watson, and Arthur J. Gallagher & Company across virtually every geography.

Aon earns revenue through commissions tied to insurance and reinsurance premiums — a structure that fluctuates with the insurance pricing cycle — and through fees for advisory, analytics, and plan-administration services that are less market-sensitive. Risk Capital's commercial risk brokerage organizes around industry verticals (property, casualty, cyber, energy, and others) and accesses capacity through Global Broking Centers in London, Bermuda, and Singapore. Reinsurance Solutions includes treaty and facultative placement plus capital markets advisory. Human Capital spans health consulting and benefits design for multinational employers, retirement actuarial and pension risk-transfer advisory, and talent benchmarking — each billed as fee-for-service or subscription arrangements. Aon Securities LLC, an indirect subsidiary registered with FINRA and SIPC, handles U.S. investment banking, capital advisory, and broker-dealer activity. The company held $15.2 billion of consolidated debt at year-end 2025, with financial covenants requiring maintenance of specified EBITDA-to-interest and debt-to-EBITDA ratios tested quarterly.

Show full overview

Aon's global licensing footprint subjects it to multi-regulator oversight simultaneously: the FCA in the U.K., the SEC, DOL, and FINRA in the U.S. for its investment advisory and retirement consulting subsidiaries, and insurance-regulatory bodies across jurisdictions where its operating entities hold producer, broker, or reinsurance intermediary licenses. Certain jurisdictions issue licenses only to resident entities, requiring Aon to maintain local licensing arrangements subject to ongoing renewal. If regulators in any material jurisdiction revoke or decline to renew a key license, the company's ability to place business in that market could be impaired.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

From Aon plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Aon plc

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-06T11:48:15Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jan 29, 202784d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$73.1B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE43.4%
Rev Growth2.6%
Beta0.61
Dividend0.95%
Analysts with ratings27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV39%normal
Max Pain$185-46.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
3.1

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.1
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
83 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $271.52Resistance $350.47

Price Targets

A.Upside-5.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-29 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $344.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $326.38. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AON stock price target?

Analyst target $326.89 reached (−5.1% from $344.40); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $326.38. Stop-loss: $326.38.

What are the risks of investing in AON?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.8): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is AON overvalued or undervalued?

Aon plc trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AON?

27 analysts rate AON, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $363.

What does Aon plc do?Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital...

Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue comes primarily from commissions on insurance and reinsurance placements and fees for consulting and advisory services, with no single client exceeding 1% of total revenue.

Related stocks: WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) · AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) · RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.) · ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company) · BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.)
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