Aon's insurance brokerage franchise generates peer-leading 23% net margins and a return on equity that ranks best-in-class versus peers with a four-quarter earnings beat streak, but thin near-term upside of roughly 5%, a risk/reward barely above 1-to-1, a confirmed price downtrend, and leverage of 1.6 times debt-to-equity together constrain the near-term setup and make this a hold-not-add situation at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Leverage Amplifies Downside Exposure↑Improving
- Disciplined Earnings Delivery→Stable
- Peer Leading Margins And Returns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Wait for pullback to $268.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $277.99. Engine's entry $268.33 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Weak growth.
Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue... Read more
Wait for pullback to $268.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $277.99. Engine's entry $268.33 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About Aon plc
About Aon plc
Aon plc's Risk Capital segment generated $11.3 billion in 2025 revenue and Human Capital contributed $5.9 billion, producing total consolidated revenue of $17.2 billion across 120+ countries, with approximately 51.8% of that revenue derived from non-U.S. operations attributed to where services are performed. The firm employs roughly 60,000 people and competes against Marsh McLennan, Willis Towers Watson, and Arthur J. Gallagher & Company across virtually every geography.
Aon earns revenue through commissions tied to insurance and reinsurance premiums — a structure that fluctuates with the insurance pricing cycle — and through fees for advisory, analytics, and plan-administration services that are less market-sensitive. Risk Capital's commercial risk brokerage organizes around industry verticals (property, casualty, cyber, energy, and others) and accesses capacity through Global Broking Centers in London, Bermuda, and Singapore. Reinsurance Solutions includes treaty and facultative placement plus capital markets advisory. Human Capital spans health consulting and benefits design for multinational employers, retirement actuarial and pension risk-transfer advisory, and talent benchmarking — each billed as fee-for-service or subscription arrangements. Aon Securities LLC, an indirect subsidiary registered with FINRA and SIPC, handles U.S. investment banking, capital advisory, and broker-dealer activity. The company held $15.2 billion of consolidated debt at year-end 2025, with financial covenants requiring maintenance of specified EBITDA-to-interest and debt-to-EBITDA ratios tested quarterly.
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Aon's global licensing footprint subjects it to multi-regulator oversight simultaneously: the FCA in the U.K., the SEC, DOL, and FINRA in the U.S. for its investment advisory and retirement consulting subsidiaries, and insurance-regulatory bodies across jurisdictions where its operating entities hold producer, broker, or reinsurance intermediary licenses. Certain jurisdictions issue licenses only to resident entities, requiring Aon to maintain local licensing arrangements subject to ongoing renewal. If regulators in any material jurisdiction revoke or decline to renew a key license, the company's ability to place business in that market could be impaired.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
From Aon plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Aon plc
Latest news
- NEWS Aon Earnings Beat Expectations but Revenue Miss Sends Shares Lower - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Aon (AON) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Aon (AON) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Aon Q2 revenue rises 2% to $4.25 billion - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Gabelli Funds LLC Grows Stock Holdings in Aon plc $AON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-26T04:41:59Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $268.33. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $277.99. Engine's entry $268.33 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $345.46 (+24.3%), stop $253.15 (−9.8%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $345.46 (+24.3% upside). Target $345.46 (+24.3%), stop $253.15 (−9.8%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $253.15.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Aon plc trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
27 analysts cover AON with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $384.
What does Aon plc do?Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital...
Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue comes primarily from commissions on insurance and reinsurance placements and fees for consulting and advisory services, with no single client exceeding 1% of total revenue.