Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine), generating $1.9B in 2025 total revenue. Revenue is primarily from COVID vaccine sales to governments and health authorities; the company also... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductCOVID vaccines10-K Item 1: 'we achieved total revenue of $1.9 billion, largely from sales of our COVID vaccines'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -29.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -145.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $43.55. Score 3.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $55.08 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $43.55. Stop-loss: $43.55.
Concentration risk — Product: COVID vaccines; Target reached (-20.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Moderna, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover MRNA with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $41.
What does Moderna, Inc. do?Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA...
Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine), generating $1.9B in 2025 total revenue. Revenue is primarily from COVID vaccine sales to governments and health authorities; the company also has a 35-program pipeline spanning oncology, rare disease, and infectious disease.