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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.71: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine for adults). Total revenue was $1.9 billion in 2025, largely from COVID vaccine sales, while the pipeline of 35 programs spans infectious disease,... Read more

$47.71+21.2% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#141 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.10%
Stop $44.74Target $58.29(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$43.37-9.1%19 analysts
$58.29our TP
$47.71price
$43.37mean
$21
$69

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.71: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Moderna, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: COVID vaccines
Target reached (-18.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.6
Mkt Cap$19.1B
EV/EBITDA-6.6
Profit Mgn-143.6%
ROE-36.6%
Rev Growth260.2%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$30-37.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCOVID vaccines
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, we achieved total revenue of $1.9 billion, largely from sales of our COVID vaccines.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.8
Current Ratio
8.2
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
4.4
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.68Resistance $59.48

Price Targets

$45
$58
A.Upside+22.2%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRNA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $47.71: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.74. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRNA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.29 (+21.2% upside). Prior stop was $44.74. Stop-loss: $44.74.

What are the risks of investing in MRNA?

Concentration risk — Product: COVID vaccines; Target reached (-18.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is MRNA overvalued or undervalued?

Moderna, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRNA?

30 analysts cover MRNA with a consensus score of 3.2/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Moderna, Inc. do?Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA...

Moderna is an mRNA medicine company with three commercial products: Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE (COVID vaccines) and mRESVIA (RSV vaccine for adults). Total revenue was $1.9 billion in 2025, largely from COVID vaccine sales, while the pipeline of 35 programs spans infectious disease, oncology, and rare disease.

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