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Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $94.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries with $912M in fiscal 2025 revenue. Products span components to integrated subsystems for C4I, sensor processing, electronic warfare, and radar, sold... Read more

$94.05-1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#44 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.75%
Stop $87.74Target $93.19(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$100.25+6.6%8 analysts
$93.19our TP
$94.05price
$100.25mean
$68
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $94.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Mercury Systems Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government and defense programs (97.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors
Target reached (-7.5% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)60.6
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA61.6
Profit Mgn-1.5%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.99neutral
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$135+43.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government and defense programs97%
    10-K Item 1A: 'to the U.S. government, as well as foreign governments, accounted for approximately 97%, 95% and 98% of our total net revenues in fiscal years 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerRTX Corporation13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, RTX Corporation accounted for 13% of our total net revenues and both Lockheed Martin and U. S. Navy accounted for 10% of our total net revenues.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerLockheed Martin10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, RTX Corporation accounted for 13% of our total net revenues and both Lockheed Martin and U. S. Navy accounted for 10% of our total net revenues.'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors
    10-K Item 1A: 'Several components used in our products are currently obtained from sole-source suppliers... dependent on a limited number of key vendors for certain critical components such as FPGAs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.2
Growth Rank
2.7
Value Rank
4.2

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.4
Operating Margin
1.3
Gross Margin
1.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Current Ratio
9.8
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
2.1
Gap
5.0
52w Position
8.2
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $73.47Resistance $95.09

Price Targets

$88
$93
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRCY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $94.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $87.74. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MRCY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.19 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $87.74. Stop-loss: $87.74.

What are the risks of investing in MRCY?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government and defense programs (97.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers for FPGAs, ASICs, processors; Target reached (-7.5% upside).

Is MRCY overvalued or undervalued?

Mercury Systems Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 60.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MRCY?

15 analysts cover MRCY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $100.

What does Mercury Systems Inc do?Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across...

Mercury Systems makes mission-critical processing systems for aerospace and defense, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries with $912M in fiscal 2025 revenue. Products span components to integrated subsystems for C4I, sensor processing, electronic warfare, and radar, sold primarily to defense prime contractors and the U.S. government.

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