Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Mercury Systems delivers mission-critical signal and data processing technology to aerospace and defense markets, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries from its Andover, MA headquarters. Fiscal 2025 revenues were $912M, primarily as subcontractor to defense prime... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomergovernment customers97%10-K Item 1A: 'to the U.S. government, as well as foreign governments, accounted for approximately 97%, 95% and 98% of our total net revenues in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
- LOWCustomerRTX Corporation13%10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2025, RTX Corporation accounted for 13% of our total net revenues'
- LOWCustomerLockheed Martin10%10-K Item 1A: 'both Lockheed Martin and U. S. Navy accounted for 10% of our total net revenues'
- HIGHSuppliersole-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'Several components used in our products are currently obtained from sole-source suppliers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $72.45. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $84.28 (+8.2% upside). Prior stop was $72.45. Stop-loss: $72.45.
Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (97.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source suppliers; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).
Mercury Systems Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 49.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover MRCY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $97.
What does Mercury Systems Inc do?Mercury Systems delivers mission-critical signal and data processing technology to aerospace and defense markets,...
Mercury Systems delivers mission-critical signal and data processing technology to aerospace and defense markets, deployed in 300+ programs across 35 countries from its Andover, MA headquarters. Fiscal 2025 revenues were $912M, primarily as subcontractor to defense prime contractors and direct sales to the U.S. government.