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MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $139.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across roughly 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from commissions; U.S. high-grade corporate bonds represent ~37.8% of... Read more

$138.57+22.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#15 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-5.03%
IncomeYield2.20%(5y avg 1.17%)Payout36.26%sustainable
Entry $139.80(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $129.98Target $163.64(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$188.09+35.7%11 analysts
$163.64our TP
$138.57price
$188.09mean
$250

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $139.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.8
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE24.3%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.92
Dividend2.20%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C3.50bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$115-17.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductU.S. high-grade corporate bonds38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive approximately 37.8% of our revenues from secondary trading in U.S. high-grade corporate bonds.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board committee assignments for directors Douglas Cifu (Compensation/Talent and Finance Committees) and Kenneth Schiciano (Audit Committee) effective May 1, 2026. Amendment to Jan 26, 2026 8-K election announcement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Naineshkumar Panchal (CIO) service ending April 1, 2026. New Chief Technology Officer identified via comprehensive search but identity not yet disclosed; to be announced in a press release. No successor named in this filing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.4
Value Rank
4.6
Quality Rank
8.2
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $136.52Resistance $163.66

Price Targets

$130
$140
$164
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKTX stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $139.80 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $163.64 (+18.1%), stop $129.98 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $163.64 (+22.6% upside). Target $163.64 (+18.1%), stop $129.98 (−6.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $129.98.

What are the risks of investing in MKTX?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MKTX overvalued or undervalued?

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MKTX?

19 analysts cover MKTX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $188.

What does MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. do?MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional...

MarketAxess operates leading electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across roughly 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from commissions; U.S. high-grade corporate bonds represent ~37.8% of revenues alone. International revenues grew to 32.8% of total in 2025.

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