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Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $95.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: one specialty pharmacy.

Mirum Pharmaceuticals markets three FDA-approved rare disease medicines: LIVMARLI for cholestatic pruritus in ALGS and PFIC, CTEXLI for CTX (approved Feb 2025), and CHOLBAM for bile acid synthesis disorders. Commercial revenue comes from direct US sales; pipeline includes... Read more

$95.65+33.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#32 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.87%
Stop $88.95Target $127.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$146.73+53.4%11 analysts
$127.65our TP
$95.65price
$146.73mean
$185

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $95.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: one specialty pharmacy. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.33, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 33%
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: one specialty pharmacy
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-171.1
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA-115.1
Profit Mgn-140.2%
ROE-335.8%
Rev Growth43.3%
Beta0.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.74bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyone specialty pharmacy
    10-K Item 1: 'We are commercializing Ctexli and Cholbam in the United States through one specialty pharmacy.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.33NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $88.34Resistance $114.99

Price Targets

$89
$128
A.Upside+33.5%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MIRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $95.65 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Concentration risk — Counterparty: one specialty pharmacy. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $88.95. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MIRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.65 (+33.5% upside). Prior stop was $88.95. Stop-loss: $88.95.

What are the risks of investing in MIRM?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: one specialty pharmacy; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MIRM overvalued or undervalued?

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -171.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MIRM?

17 analysts cover MIRM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Mirum Pharmaceuticals markets three FDA-approved rare disease medicines: LIVMARLI for cholestatic pruritus in ALGS and...

Mirum Pharmaceuticals markets three FDA-approved rare disease medicines: LIVMARLI for cholestatic pruritus in ALGS and PFIC, CTEXLI for CTX (approved Feb 2025), and CHOLBAM for bile acid synthesis disorders. Commercial revenue comes from direct US sales; pipeline includes volixibat (PSC/PBC Phase 2b) and brelovitug (HDV Phase 3, acquired via Bluejay in Jan 2026).

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