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MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1785.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Play and Apple app stores.

MercadoLibre is the leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, operating in 18 countries with the top e-commerce GMV and Mercado Pago fintech platform by monthly active users in key markets. Revenue comes from marketplace transaction fees, payment... Read more

$1785.76+22.8% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 18 Internet Retail
Stop $1676.95Target $2191.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$2434.50+36.3%26 analysts
$2191.05our TP
$1785.76price
$2434.50mean
$3500

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1785.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Play and Apple app stores. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Play and Apple app stores
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.8
P/E (Fwd)26.0
Mkt Cap$89.6B
EV/EBITDA23.6
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE36.0%
Rev Growth44.6%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$2490+39.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierGoogle Play and Apple app stores
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on third-party platforms, such as Google Play and Apple app stores, to access our Mercado Libre and Mercado Pago apps'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-03Item 5.02LOW
    Board established 2026 Bonus Program performance goals for NEOs (CEO, Executive Chairman, Fintech President, Technology & Operations President, CFO) based on Net revenues, Income from operations, TPV, and NPS metrics. Routine annual compensation arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1684.09Resistance $1903.00

Price Targets

$1677
$2191
A.Upside+22.7%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MELI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1785.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Play and Apple app stores. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $1676.95. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the MELI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2191.05 (+22.8% upside). Prior stop was $1676.95. Stop-loss: $1676.95.

What are the risks of investing in MELI?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Google Play and Apple app stores; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is MELI overvalued or undervalued?

MercadoLibre, Inc. trades at a P/E of 44.8 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MELI?

31 analysts cover MELI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $2435.

What does MercadoLibre, Inc. do?MercadoLibre is the leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, operating in 18 countries with the...

MercadoLibre is the leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, operating in 18 countries with the top e-commerce GMV and Mercado Pago fintech platform by monthly active users in key markets. Revenue comes from marketplace transaction fees, payment processing, logistics (Mercado Envios), and advertising. Network effects connect millions of buyers, sellers, and fintech users across the region.

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