Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
MELI · Why this verdict
Why MercadoLibre (MELI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -214% FCF/NI
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 49% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $993,556 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 1.6 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.76
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.65
Upside
+25.5%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.35>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Value at 5.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.1, Momentum at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.