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Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $415.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.60).

Medpace Holdings is a full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies globally, with ~6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue is generated from... Read more

$415.72+25.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 25 Diagnostics & Research
Stop $386.03Target $520.35(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$442.83+6.5%12 analysts
$520.35our TP
$415.72price
$442.83mean
$329
$520

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $415.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative news sentiment (-0.60)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)22.3
Mkt Cap$11.8B
EV/EBITDA19.1
Profit Mgn17.2%
ROE77.3%
Rev Growth26.5%
Beta1.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$300-27.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jesse Geiger notified intent to resign as President and retire from the Company effective May 31, 2026. No reason beyond retirement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $373.00Resistance $530.97

Price Targets

$386
$520
A.Upside+25.2%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.2% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MEDP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $415.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.60). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $520.35 (+25.2%), stop $386.03 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MEDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $520.35 (+25.4% upside). Target $520.35 (+25.2%), stop $386.03 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $386.03.

What are the risks of investing in MEDP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.60); Negative momentum.

Is MEDP overvalued or undervalued?

Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MEDP?

20 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $443.

What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace Holdings is a full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical...

Medpace Holdings is a full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies globally, with ~6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue is generated from fixed-fee and other contracts for services including trial management, biostatistics, regulatory affairs, and laboratory services; 82% of 2025 net revenue came from small biopharmaceutical companies.

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