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Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitAI GATE: FLAGGED — 4 risks, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Wait for pullback to $392.72. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $405.12. Engine's entry $392.72 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies, with approximately 6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue comes from fixed-fee and variable clinical service contracts; 82%... Read more

$405.12+8.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.09%
Entry $392.72(5% below current)Stop $370.82Target $426.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$442.83+9.3%12 analysts
$426.45our TP
$405.12price
$442.83mean
$329
$495

Wait for pullback to $392.72. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $405.12. Engine's entry $392.72 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Medpace Holdings, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 22, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Jesse Geiger, President, notified company of intent to resign effective May 31, 2026. No successor named.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.5
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$12.0B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn17.2%
ROE77.3%
Rev Growth26.5%
Beta1.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.18bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$920+127.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersmall biopharmaceutical companies82%
    10-K Item 1A: '82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jesse Geiger, President, notified company of intent to resign effective May 31, 2026. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $373.00Resistance $435.15

Price Targets

$371
$393
$426
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R-0.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MEDP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $392.72. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $405.12. Engine's entry $392.72 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $426.45 (+5.3%), stop $370.82 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MEDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $426.45 (+8.6% upside). Target $426.45 (+5.3%), stop $370.82 (−9.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $370.82.

What are the risks of investing in MEDP?

Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is MEDP overvalued or undervalued?

Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MEDP?

20 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $443.

What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical,...

Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies, with approximately 6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue comes from fixed-fee and variable clinical service contracts; 82% of net revenue derives from small biopharmaceutical companies and 13% from mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies.

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