Medpace is a high-quality, fast-growing contract research business with consistent double-digit earnings beats and strong returns on capital, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst target with virtually no price headroom remaining, screens expensive at a forward P/E of roughly 25 times with a PEG above 2.8, and carries significant customer exposure to small biopharmaceutical clients representing over 80% of revenues.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Large Earnings Beats→Stable
- Compounder Quality Profile→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026· older than 90 days
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $656.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $656.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $656.77 vs the analyst target $566.64: -13.7% upside; No upside left. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (news events none recent, earnings proximity 95d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Shares Fall 3.8% -- What GF Score of 96 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 31, 2026 negative
- NEWS A Look at Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) After 6.4% Gain -- GF Value $539.19 vs Price $662.48 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Overvalued After Q3 Earnings Beat - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Here's How Much $100 Invested In Medpace Holdings 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today - Benzinga — Benzinga Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Insider Decision: August J Troendle Offloads $1.59M Worth Of Medpace Holdings Stock - Benzinga — Benzinga Sep 30, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomersmall biopharmaceutical companies82%10-K Item 1A: '82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers35%10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOWBrad W. Hansman (age 43) appointed EVP Operations effective June 1, 2026, to perform principal operating officer functions alongside existing EVP Susan Burwig. Internal promotion from Senior Vice President. No departing officer.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUMJesse Geiger notified intent to resign as President, effective May 31, 2026, to retire. No successor named in available filing text. No disagreement with Company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $656.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $656.77 vs the analyst target $566.64: -13.7% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $566.64 reached (−13.7%), stop $572.75 (−14.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $566.64 reached (−13.7% from $656.77); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $566.64 reached (−13.7%), stop $572.75 (−14.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $572.75.
Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.5 (forward 33.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
20 analysts rate MEDP, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $651.
What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device...
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small biopharmaceutical clients.