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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $522.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom) as its sole approved product (FDA-approved March 2024, EC conditional approval August 2025). Rezdiffra generated $958.4 million in product revenue in 2025; a... Read more

$522.23+12.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#34 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.30%
Stop $485.67Target $586.69(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$674.36+29.1%14 analysts
$586.69our TP
$522.23price
$674.36mean
$964

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $522.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val4.9Qual4.2Grw10.0Mom5.8Sent8.7Ins3.8Peer3.9Tech5.6Risk4.15.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)42.3
Mkt Cap$12.1B
EV/EBITDA-37.2
Profit Mgn-27.3%
ROE-49.3%
Rev Growth126.8%
Beta-1.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductRezdiffra
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the success of our only approved product, Rezdiffra'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOW
    Board reclassified Julian C. Baker (from Class III) and Daniel J. Brennan (from Class II) as Class I directors effective April 22, 2026. Directors resigned and were simultaneously reappointed; no actual departure from the board.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.4
Value Rank
4.6
Growth Rank
8.8
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $490.13Resistance $559.00

Price Targets

$486
$587
A.Upside+12.3%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDGL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $522.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $586.69 (+12.3%), stop $485.67 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $586.69 (+12.3% upside). Target $586.69 (+12.3%), stop $485.67 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $485.67.

What are the risks of investing in MDGL?

Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MDGL overvalued or undervalued?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MDGL?

23 analysts cover MDGL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $674.

What does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom)...

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on MASH, with Rezdiffra (resmetirom) as its sole approved product (FDA-approved March 2024, EC conditional approval August 2025). Rezdiffra generated $958.4 million in product revenue in 2025; a pivotal Phase 3 OUTCOMES trial in compensated MASH cirrhosis is enrolling with data expected in 2027.

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