Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MDGL stock price target?

Take-profit $585.32 (+13.5% upside). Prior stop was $485.94.

Q: Is MDGL overvalued or undervalued?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 40.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MDGL?

23 analysts cover MDGL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $673.

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharma with Rezdiffra, the first FDA-approved and EC conditionally approved treatment for noncirrhotic MASH, generating $958.4M product revenue in 2025. It is advancing additional MASH pipeline candidates including MGL-2086,... Read more

$515.88+13.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#47 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $485.94Target $585.32(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1

Analyst target$672.79+30.4%14 analysts

$585.32our TP

$515.88price

$672.79mean

$964

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $515.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. sales. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong growth profile

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. sales

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)40.5

Mkt Cap$12.0B

EV/EBITDA-37.7

Profit Mgn-30.1%

ROE-42.5%

Rev Growth210.8%

Beta-1.01

DividendNone

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish

IV74%elevated

Max Pain$300-41.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductRezdiffra
10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects are highly dependent on the success of our only approved product, Rezdiffra'
HIGHGeographicU.S. sales
10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive the substantial portion of our revenue from U.S. sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.415%0.66

Quality4.015%0.60

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum4.310%0.43

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank3.910%0.39

Technical Setup7.05%0.35

Risk Profile3.45%0.17

Catalyst3.35%0.17

Overall (Σ contributions)5.40

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg

0.0

Earnings History

3.3

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

2.8

Value Rank

3.6

Growth Rank

9.2

Industry growth leader

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

47 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $500.97Resistance $547.98

Price Targets

$486

$585

A.Upside+13.5%

A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MDGL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $515.88 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. sales. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $485.94. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $585.32 (+13.5% upside). Prior stop was $485.94. Stop-loss: $485.94.

What are the risks of investing in MDGL?

Concentration risk — Product: Rezdiffra; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. sales; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is MDGL overvalued or undervalued?

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 40.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDGL?

23 analysts cover MDGL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $673.

What does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharma with Rezdiffra, the first FDA-approved and EC conditionally...