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MCMoelis & CompanyBuy Wait5.9·$54.27
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Moelis & Company combines exceptional business quality — a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, 42% return on equity, and superior margins relative to peers — with a recently broken earnings beat streak and virtually no remaining upside to the near-term technical target, suggesting the quality franchise is fairly priced and patience is the appropriate stance.

Thesis pillars

  • Fully Priced Near Term Target→Stable
  • Exceptional Business Quality→Stable
  • Beat Streak Recently Broken→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Wait for pullback to $52.39. At $54.27 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Negative momentum.

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416... Read more

$54.27+8.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#24 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.61%(5y avg 4.33%)Payout90.59%at-risk
Entry $52.39(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $48.72Target $58.73(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$67.50+24.4%10 analysts
$58.73our TP
$54.27price
$67.50mean
$80

Wait for pullback to $52.39. At $54.27 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.2%
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE41.5%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.90
Dividend4.61%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C2.27bearish
IV86%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.5
Macd
8.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $53.35Resistance $61.10

Price Targets

$49
$52
$59
A.Upside+8.2%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $52.39. At $54.27 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $52.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $58.73 (+8.2%), stop $48.72 (−11.4%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.73 (+8.2% upside). Target $58.73 (+8.2%), stop $48.72 (−11.4%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $48.72.

What are the risks of investing in MC?

Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is MC overvalued or undervalued?

Moelis & Company trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MC?

19 analysts cover MC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Moelis & Company do?Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization,...

Moelis & Company is a global independent investment bank founded in 2007, providing M&A, recapitalization, restructuring, capital markets, and private capital advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The firm employed 1,416 professionals including 178 Managing Directors across over 20 global offices in 2025; 254 clients paid fees of $1 million or more.

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