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Moelis & Company (MC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $64.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: advisory fees; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Moelis and Company is a global independent investment bank with 178 Managing Directors across 20+ locations, advising corporations, financial sponsors, and governments on M&A, restructurings, capital markets, and private capital. It has advised on over $5.5 trillion of... Read more

$64.57+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#14 of 40 Capital Markets
Stop $59.65Target $69.56(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$69.20+7.2%10 analysts
$69.56our TP
$64.57price
$69.20mean
$58
$86

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $64.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: advisory fees; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: advisory fees
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn15.4%
ROE44.8%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta1.86
Dividend3.88%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.09bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$45-30.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductadvisory fees
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our revenue is derived from advisory fees.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.1
Value Rank
4.6
Quality Rank
7.1
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $54.54Resistance $70.98

Price Targets

$60
$70
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $64.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: advisory fees; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $69.56 (+7.7%), stop $59.65 (−8.2%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.56 (+8.5% upside). Target $69.56 (+7.7%), stop $59.65 (−8.2%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $59.65.

What are the risks of investing in MC?

Concentration risk — Product: advisory fees; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is MC overvalued or undervalued?

Moelis & Company trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MC?

19 analysts cover MC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Moelis & Company do?Moelis and Company is a global independent investment bank with 178 Managing Directors across 20+ locations, advising...

Moelis and Company is a global independent investment bank with 178 Managing Directors across 20+ locations, advising corporations, financial sponsors, and governments on M&A, restructurings, capital markets, and private capital. It has advised on over $5.5 trillion of transactions since founding in 2007 and derives substantially all revenue from advisory fees.

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