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Matson, Inc. (MATX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Sell if holding. At $184.25, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the South Pacific from the U.S. West Coast, operating through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. Revenue is earned from container freight, logistics... Read more

$184.25+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#10 of 12 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.30%
IncomeYield0.78%(5y avg 1.28%)Payout10.53%sustainable
Stop $171.35Target $190.40(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$224.00+21.6%3 analysts
$190.40our TP
$184.25price
$224.00mean
$230

Sell if holding. At $184.25, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Matson, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.3%
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn12.9%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth-3.1%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.78%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$150-18.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop-10 Ocean Transportation customers19%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's 10 largest Ocean Transportation customers account for approximately 19 percent of the Company's Ocean Transportation revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John P. Lauer, Executive VP and Chief Commercial Officer, notified Matson of intent to retire effective July 1, 2026. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -3.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.7
Earnings Growth
4.5
Declining revenue: -3%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $161.25Resistance $189.62

Price Targets

$171
$190
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $184.25, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $171.35. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $190.40 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $171.35. Stop-loss: $171.35.

What are the risks of investing in MATX?

Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?

Matson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MATX?

10 analysts cover MATX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Matson, Inc. do?Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the...

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the South Pacific from the U.S. West Coast, operating through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. Revenue is earned from container freight, logistics brokerage, and value-added services; top 10 customers represent ~19% of Ocean Transportation revenue.

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