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Matson, Inc. (MATX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $172.61, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Near 52-week high (4.6% away).

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and Hawaii and serving Alaska, Guam, Micronesia, and China via expedited CLX/MAX container services. Revenue is earned from ocean freight carriage, SSAT joint venture... Read more

$172.61+8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 13 Marine Shipping
Stop $162.79Target $187.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$220.00+27.5%3 analysts
$187.00our TP
$172.61price
$220.00mean
$230

Sell if holding. At $172.61, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.3%
Near 52-week high (4.6% away)
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.78bearish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company’s businesses are dependent on their relationships with customers and derive a significant portion of their revenues from the Company’s largest customers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John P. Lauer, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, notified Matson on March 9, 2026 of intent to retire July 1, 2026. No successor named for the EVP/CCO role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Earnings Growth
6.2
Declining revenue: -4%
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $161.92Resistance $180.88

Price Targets

$163
$187
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $172.61, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Near 52-week high (4.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $162.79. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $187.00 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $162.79. Stop-loss: $162.79.

What are the risks of investing in MATX?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Near 52-week high (4.6% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?

Matson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MATX?

9 analysts cover MATX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $220.

What does Matson, Inc. do?Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and...

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and Hawaii and serving Alaska, Guam, Micronesia, and China via expedited CLX/MAX container services. Revenue is earned from ocean freight carriage, SSAT joint venture stevedoring, and logistics brokerage through Matson Logistics.

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