Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.86
MATX · Why this verdict
Why Matson (MATX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Matson has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average upside surprise of roughly 25%, demonstrating exceptional near-term execution, but the stock has run close to its price target with only about 2% upside remaining against roughly 6% downside — a 0.34-to-1 risk/reward that limits the case for new commitment. Underlying quality is below average with no identifiable competitive moat, and revenue contracted approximately 3% in the most recent period.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company's quality profile is below the threshold that would be expected for a core holding, with free cash flow converting only about 56% of reported net income — an earnings quality concern — and no identifiable competitive moat to defend returns as the market cycle evolves. Quality breakdown | FCF relative to net income improves above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful improvement in the quality of reported earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterBelow-average FCF conversion in a capital-intensive marine shipping business may reflect fleet investment cycles rather than structural weakness; the ratio could improve sharply once a capital spending peak has passed. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with an average upside surprise of roughly 25% — including a 15% beat in the most recent quarter and beats of 24–30% in the three prior quarters — demonstrating a consistent pattern of out-delivering against expectations. Catalyst breakdown | Beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 10% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA perfect beat streak built on a declining revenue base may reflect cost discipline and favorable comps rather than genuine growth; any deterioration in shipping volumes or rates could end the run abruptly and trigger sharp downward estimate revisions. | ||
With approximately 2% upside to the near-term price target against about 6% potential downside, the risk/reward ratio stands at roughly 0.34-to-1 — a setup that rewards patience over new commitment and suggests the near-term opportunity has largely been captured. Price targets | A more attractive entry emerges only if the stock pulls back at least 10% from current levels, restoring upside to the target above 12% and producing a risk/reward ratio above 1.5-to-1. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA continued momentum breakout — golden cross in place, MACD bullish, RSI at a healthy 64 — can carry the stock through its near-term target, rendering the current geometry a conservative floor rather than a ceiling. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 3% in the most recent period, meaning the business is shrinking on the top line even as earnings beats continue — a divergence that typically narrows eventually, either through revenue recovery or downward EPS revisions. Growth breakdown | Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters within 12 months, confirming the decline was transitory. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShipping volumes and rates are highly cyclical; a macro recovery or a supply-chain disruption that favors domestic routes could rapidly restore revenue growth, making the current contraction a timing phenomenon rather than a structural one. | ||
The company's quality profile is below the threshold that would be expected for a core holding, with free cash flow converting only about 56% of reported net income — an earnings quality concern — and no identifiable competitive moat to defend returns as the market cycle evolves.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF relative to net income improves above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful improvement in the quality of reported earnings.
CounterBelow-average FCF conversion in a capital-intensive marine shipping business may reflect fleet investment cycles rather than structural weakness; the ratio could improve sharply once a capital spending peak has passed.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four consecutive quarters, with an average upside surprise of roughly 25% — including a 15% beat in the most recent quarter and beats of 24–30% in the three prior quarters — demonstrating a consistent pattern of out-delivering against expectations.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters, with average quarterly EPS surprise remaining above 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterA perfect beat streak built on a declining revenue base may reflect cost discipline and favorable comps rather than genuine growth; any deterioration in shipping volumes or rates could end the run abruptly and trigger sharp downward estimate revisions.
With approximately 2% upside to the near-term price target against about 6% potential downside, the risk/reward ratio stands at roughly 0.34-to-1 — a setup that rewards patience over new commitment and suggests the near-term opportunity has largely been captured.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A more attractive entry emerges only if the stock pulls back at least 10% from current levels, restoring upside to the target above 12% and producing a risk/reward ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterA continued momentum breakout — golden cross in place, MACD bullish, RSI at a healthy 64 — can carry the stock through its near-term target, rendering the current geometry a conservative floor rather than a ceiling.
Revenue declined approximately 3% in the most recent period, meaning the business is shrinking on the top line even as earnings beats continue — a divergence that typically narrows eventually, either through revenue recovery or downward EPS revisions.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters within 12 months, confirming the decline was transitory.
CounterShipping volumes and rates are highly cyclical; a macro recovery or a supply-chain disruption that favors domestic routes could rapidly restore revenue growth, making the current contraction a timing phenomenon rather than a structural one.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.4 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,550,782 (0.099% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.46
Upside
-6.3%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.6; weakest: Growth at 3.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Quality at 4.3, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses analyst consensus estimates by more than 5% for 1 quarter, breaking the consecutive beat streak.
- P2Limited Near Term UpsideTripped
Trip ifUpside to the near-term price target exceeds 12% (stock retreats below approximately $175), restoring a favorable risk/reward ratio.
- P3Below Average Quality No Moat
Trip ifFCF relative to net income rises above 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Revenue Contraction
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive above 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.